An Allied Plan to Depend Less on China The U.S., Australia, Japan and India already have a forum for coordination. By Paula J. Dobriansky
https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-allied-plan-to-depend-less-on-china-11588288513?mod=opinion_lead_pos10
The Covid-19 pandemic is prompting reconsideration of issues that were thought to be settled. One is the wisdom of China as a hub in vital supply chains, a reality driven by cost considerations and the belief that integrating China into the global economy would moderate Beijing’s behavior. Unfortunately, China hasn’t moderated. Beijing has been an unreliable supplier that pressures trading partners.
Roughly three-quarters of American companies report supply-chain disruptions in China, according to a spring survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. The Japanese and Australian economies have been severely hurt by China’s lockdown of Hubei province and other supply interruptions. China’s official Xinhua News Agency has threatened to exploit Beijing’s control over medical supply chains as retaliation against U.S. efforts to hold China accountable for its actions during the pandemic.
A re-examination is overdue. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has set aside $2.2 billion of Tokyo’s stimulus package to assist Japanese companies in relocating production from China to Southeast Asia. The White House’s Larry Kudlow has suggested that the U.S. government could pay moving costs for U.S. companies that leave China. South Korea appears to be planning to shift several important factories from China to India.
Washington and its partners in Asia should set up new supply chains, restructure trade relations, and start to create an international economic order that is less dependent on China. A multilateral “coalition of the willing” approach would better align trading ties with political and security relationships. It would also help India and nations in Southeast Asia develop more rapidly, becoming stronger U.S. partners.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is an optimal venue. Established by Prime Minister Abe in 2007 to discuss regional security issues, the Quad’s members are Japan, India, Australia and the U.S. In 2017 the Trump administration launched a free and open Indo-Pacific initiative, designed to support U.S. relations with India and offset China’s efforts to establish regional dominance. This further enhanced the importance of the Quad. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held the first ministerial-level Quad meeting in September.
The Quad’s agenda should be broadened to include economic security, and the group could bring in partners like South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam, in a “Quad Plus” format. Vietnam would be particularly worthy. U.S.-Vietnamese relations have improved dramatically in the past several years. Hanoi shares U.S. concerns about aggressive Chinese behavior and has been striving to become a leader in global supply-chain management and manufacturing.
The Quad-Plus should drive an agenda that balances economic, political and security imperatives. Rather than seeking to bring all supply chains to the U.S. or reorder all trade, it should focus on the most critical industries. The point would be to pair economic concerns with national-security aims, protect intellectual property, and ensure reliable access to public-health goods—so the U.S. is no longer at the mercy of Beijing for supplies in a pandemic.
Ms. Dobriansky is a senior fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center. She served as undersecretary of state for global affairs, 2001-09.
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