https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-new-coronavirus-thinking-11589498695?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
A strange thing happened in Germany this week: Covid-19 started spreading a bit faster and officials and the public managed to cope. It’s an important benchmark for other governments as they allow their own economies to emerge from viral hibernation.
Scientists at the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the German government’s epidemiological advisory service, calculate that the coronavirus resumed its spread through the population as the country’s lockdown started easing in late April. The reproduction rate, or R0, was above 1 for several days this week, and as high as 1.1 last weekend. That means that each person infected with the virus transmits it on average to 1.1 other people—exponential growth.
This is as much a political event as a medical one. It seems inevitable that the coronavirus will spread as rapidly as any respiratory virus as lockdowns ease. But Chancellor Angela Merkel made a transmission rate of less than 1 a central plank of her reopening plan.
In an April press conference, Mrs. Merkel instructed Germans on precisely how overwhelmed hospitals would become at each level of R0 above 1. The RKI estimated the transmission rate at around 0.8 before Mrs. Merkel started easing the lockdown. Germans were warned that restrictions might return if the disease resumed its spread.