The Palestinians Need to Make Bold Moves Facing crisis, they should follow Arafat’s example by agreeing to negotiations. By Walter Russell Mead (Oh Puleez!!!!!rsk)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-palestinians-need-to-make-bold-moves-11589842737?mod=opinion_featst_pos1
I admire Mead, but Arafat’s example after Oslo was to engage in a concatenation of terror in every corner of Israel- in markets, buses, eateries, communal gatherings and leave mangled and bloody kiddie strollers in the wake. His argument is ludicrous….rsk
As speculation intensifies over possible Israeli plans to annex portions of the West Bank, the Palestinian movement faces its greatest crisis since Israel became a state. The underlying problem for the Palestinian Authority is that the balance of power has shifted massively in favor of Israel, and as other countries recalibrate their policies in light of this reality, Palestinian options are narrowing faster than the authority’s leaders can adapt.
Ever since they turned to the Arab countries to prevent the emergence of a Jewish state in the late 1940s, the Palestinians have needed the support of allies to even the scales against the Zionists. That need is more urgent and pressing today than ever, but allies are getting harder to find.
In the Middle East, two of the most important Arab states—Syria and Iraq—are so torn by internal strife that they can no longer project power beyond their borders. Egypt is too concerned with maintaining stability and nurturing a fragile economy to be interested in confrontations with Israel. The Gulf states are struggling with the oil-price implosion which, together with their rising populations and their fear of Iran, is dramatically curtailing their freedom of action even as their need for allies grows.
With the U.S. looking to reduce its regional commitments, these circumstances have made Israel a vital strategic ally for the Sunni Arab world. Despite continuing sympathy for the Palestinians, Arab governments cannot escape the reality that for now, and likely for some time to come, the existence of a strong Israel is a pillar of their own independence.
Iran offers itself to Palestinians as an ally, but support from such a cash-strapped friend comes with a low payoff at a high price. Both the U.S. and Israel would take a very hard line against a Palestinian Authority that turned to Tehran for support, as Hamas has. The sanctions and financial blockade that would follow such an alignment would be crippling. Support in Israel and the U.S. for tough policies and annexations on the West Bank would grow—and the Arab world’s sympathy for Palestinians would be diminished by the perceived treachery of an alliance with the Persian enemy.
Farther afield, the list of potential allies is short. Turkey’s ties to Hamas make it an unattractive partner for the Palestinian Authority, and in any case Ankara’s financial resources and political influence are limited. The Kremlin may see itself as a rival to the U.S., but Russia’s ties to Israel are deep. The Palestinians have nothing to offer Russia to offset what it gains economically, politically and technologically from its ties to Israel.
The European Union has long been a focus of Palestinian diplomatic efforts, but Europe is both divided and preoccupied with crises closer to home. Last Friday, Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign-policy chief, carefully noted that while the EU considers annexations on the West Bank illegal, they aren’t comparable to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Since the strongest sanctions require unanimous support from EU countries, and both Hungary and the Czech Republic stand ready to veto sanctions on Israel, any EU support for the Palestinians will be limited. As despairing anti-annexation Israeli columnist Gideon Levy writes in Haaretz, if Israel moves toward annexations, “Europe will not stand in its way.”
Meanwhile, India continues to deepen economic and political ties with Israel. China’s $2 billion investment in the port of Haifa and a Chinese company’s plans to build the world’s largest desalination plant in Israel may annoy China hawks in Washington, but they also demonstrate Beijing’s stake in good relations with Israel.
The Palestinians have always believed that time was on their side: Eventually, the Arab world would grow stronger, and world opinion would isolate Israel. That confidence was misplaced. As Israel has grown into a tech giant and a regional superpower, the Palestinian bargaining position continues to erode.
History offers the Palestinian Authority some hope. In the early 1990s, the collapse of the Soviet bloc deprived the Palestinians of funding and diplomatic support. Yasser Arafat’s support for Saddam Hussein after his invasion of Kuwait enraged the Gulf Arabs. Isolated and broke, Arafat got back in the game by recognizing Israel and signing the Oslo Accords in 1993 and 1995.
Faced with a worse crisis today, Arafat’s successors should be equally bold and accept one of the peace plans put forward by Israeli prime ministers since 2001 as the basis for negotiations for a final peace. This would shift perceptions in the U.S., rally Arab support, and blunt the annexation drive in Israel.
Unfortunately, a weak and divided Palestinian Authority is unlikely to take such a controversial step on its own. Friends of a two-state solution should weigh in from abroad. If the Palestinian Authority doesn’t move fast and move soon, much will be lost. Time will continue to work in Israel’s favor, and Palestinian options will only narrow as hope grows more forlorn.
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