Mainstream Media Polls: Yet More Gaslighting? Jane Menton
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-8-4-mainstream-media-polls-yet-m
“Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning are Approaching Zero” (Washington Post)
“Donald Trump is approaching his last chance to turn a catastrophic campaign into an ordinarily unsuccessful campaign” (The Atlantic)
“Two much-discussed polls by The Times and Siena College that were published last week suggested that in key swing states, as well as nationally, [Trump’s] the limping dead” (New York Times)
“Trump is going to lose – decisively – this fall.” (San Diego Tribune)
“Trump Is Losing Big to [Opponent] in Voter Polls. Here’s How That Will Likely Play Out on Election Day” (MarketWatch)
“Donald Trump’s Terrible Campaign is Finally Catching Up to Him” (Vanity Fair)
“Trump’s Losing, So When Are Republican Candidates Going to Abandon Him?” (New Yorker)
Some of these quotes are from 2016 and some are from 2020, but it’s almost impossible to tell which are which (Go ahead and guess in the comments, but it’s cheating if you click on the links).
If you read the mainstream media, you would find it hard to believe that Trump has any chance of winning re-election in November. But then again, they had me utterly persuaded the same was true in 2016. I honestly don’t know what will happen this fall, but I’m not convinced anyone in the media knows either. Over the past few years, once-reliable news sources have shown a stunning inability to deviate from a predetermined narrative even in light of contrary evidence (see: Manhattan Contrarian gaslighting roundup here). Who’s to say that isn’t happening in this situation? And it doesn’t help inspire confidence that the tone of many of the articles I’ve read is downright gleeful.
Pollsters say they’ve learned from 2016, figured out what went wrong, and are better at reading results than ever before. In an Atlantic article, democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg describes the changes he made to adjust for past errors:
“Four years ago, those without a four-year degree made up 48 percent of my survey respondents; today they account for 60 percent. Whites without a college degree were 33 percent of my surveys; today they are 43 percent. That is a huge change — an elixir against being deceived again.” [my emphasis]
If the polls are right this time around, it does look like the game is over for Donald Trump. Biden is leading any way you slice it – in national polls, in state polls, in critical swing states, and among all demographics with the exception of white men (who needs them, anyway?). The latest average of election polls at Real Clear Politics shows Biden with up to a 7.4 point lead nationally, whereas Hilary Clinton only managed a 4 point lead over Trump. Biden is ahead in all the surprise swing states Trump won in 2016: Florida +6.2, Pennsylvania +6, Michigan +7.8, Wisconsin +5. As one giddy New York Times oped put it, “Trump is flailing like an overturned turtle.”
In contrast to an abundance of polling, opinions, and news articles, the evidence I have to suggest Trump might win re-election is anecdotal and intangible: it relies on my view that the media have run such a successful campaign of shame that they might have silenced disagreement. Trump is an idiot. Trump is deplorable. Trump is unfit for office. Only uneducated losers would vote for him at this point. “Meet the Supporters Trump Has Lost,” reads a July 1, 2020, NYT headline, which contains quotes from prior-Trump voters calling him an appalling human being. From supposedly “staunch Republican” Judith Goines: “I’m ashamed to say that I’ve voted for him.”
Ashamed. In a Politico article, headlined “Trump Has a Point about the Polls,” GOP Pollster Glenn Bolger notes that one of the issues he’s having this time around is “persuad[ing] potential Trump voters to respond and answer truthfully to phone calls”. This is known as the Bradley effect, a theory which accounts for discrepancies in polling and voting results by suggesting voters lie about their true preferences when they fear social stigma.
It’s easy to imagine that effect playing a role in our current political climate, when even centrist liberals are getting called out and canceled on a regular basis. In Bari Weiss’s resignation letter from the New York Times she wrote, “standing up for principle at the paper does not win plaudits. It puts a target on your back.” (Linked here, her entire piece is worth reading). This is coming from a centrist who was bullied out of the New York Times. Has the New York Times put a target on the back of the American public?
I’m currently staying with my in-laws in the mountains of rural New Jersey. On my morning run around the lake, I noticed several houses with Trump signs pinned in their front lawns. “Imagine openly supporting Trump,” was my first thought. Imagine living in a community where that is allowed. That’s certainly not the case where I live in Queens. If I put a Trump sign in my window, I would be ostracized. I would face social isolation. I was once outed as a libertarian at a neighborhood Chanukah party and a casual acquaintance actually said to me, “I can’t help but be disappointed. I really liked you.”
People in my social circle who have anything positive to say about Trump are compelled to frame those statements with the caveat, “I am not a Trump supporter. He’s obviously a horrible person and I disagree with him on so many issues. But…”
How many Trump supporters might be hiding in plain sight? It’s impossible to know now, but the truth will come out on election day.
UPDATE, August 5: Commenter Bob points out that national polls for August 2016 showed Hillary Clinton with an average lead of 5.44% over Trump. The 4 point lead for Hillary Clinton that I cited above came from national polling averages in the month before the election which can be found here. In his Atlantic Article, Stanley Greenberg noted that Clinton held a 4 point lead in the four months before the election, and a 4 point lead in the month before the election, using that as his basis for saying that we should trust Biden’s enduring lead over Trump. For comparison, Biden’s lead in the RCP national average is currently holding at 7.4%.
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