Trump’s Vote-Count Lawsuits: The Election Endgame By Andrew C. McCarthy
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/11/trumps-vote-count-lawsuits-the-election-endgame/
Human error and cheating occur in every election. The issue with fraud claims is whether it made a difference — for the president, that is a steep mountain to climb.
President Trump’s campaign is vowing to file lawsuits challenging the results of the 2020 election in several key states. Ground zero for litigation is Pennsylvania. Rudy Giuliani, representing the president and the campaign, held a press conference in Philadelphia on Saturday, adumbrating the lawsuits he plans to begin filing today.
To call this an uphill battle understates the matter. At the moment, presumptive President-elect Biden is computed to be ahead in the electoral vote, 290 to 214. Three states have not yet been “called” (I’ll address what I mean by that shortly): Georgia (16 electoral votes) leaning Biden, and North Carolina (15) and Alaska (three) leaning Trump. That is a probable final “call” of 306 to 232 — ironically, as many have observed, the same total the president won by in 2016. Contrary to what he has claimed ever since, that is no landslide. It is, however, a commanding lead. He would need to flip Pennsylvania, where Biden leads by about 46,000 votes, plus at least two other states — the plausible candidates would seem to be Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, where Trump is currently behind by less than one percent — respectively, 10,000, 17,000, and 20,000. The Trump camp also complains about voter fraud in Michigan, but he trails by over two percent (146,000) there.
I use the term “call” because of the complaints from Trump supporters that the press does not determine who wins the presidency. This grousing is understandable when people are raw after a tough loss, but it’s off the mark. There is plenty to complain about when it comes to the media, but here they are just reporting what the states indicate their tallies are, complemented by news organization polling. They “called” the election for George W. Bush in 2000, too, even though the result was disputed and was not official until the legal challenges worked themselves out. There is a process for that. Obviously, the states (technically, the electors they appoint), not the media, determine the winner as a matter of constitutional law, and that will happen by mid December. But we generally know, due to press reporting, who the de facto winner is shortly after the polls close on Election Day. Here, it took a few days rather than a few hours. That is all the “call” means, but it is reliable.
In any event, it is sensible that Pennsylvania is the center of the action. First, Trump needs the Commonwealth — if he doesn’t flip it, there is nothing else to discuss. Second, as we’ve been covering here at NR since mid October, there is already a live Supreme Court case challenging Pennsylvania’s election law, relating to whether the three-day extension for receiving ballots (i.e., through close of business last Friday, November 6) is constitutional. Finally, the Keystone State is where the Trump camp believes it can make a strong case of fraud.
Human error and at least some cheating occur in every election of any size — and it looks like, when the dust settles, approximately 150 million Americans (a record) will have voted in the 2020 election. So the issue with claims of election fraud and other impropriety is always: Did it make a difference — i.e., if whatever improprieties had not occurred, would the outcome have been different?
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