This Isn’t Obama’s Middle East Biden faces new risks and opportunities, with Turkey a rising Islamist threat. By Walter Russell Mead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-isnt-obamas-middle-east-11604963875?mod=opinion_featst_pos1
Even in the closing weeks of America’s presidential campaign, the grisly murder of French schoolteacher Samuel Paty made an impression. As part of a civics lesson, Mr. Paty showed his class of 13-year-olds the Charlie Hebdo caricatures of the prophet Muhammad. Soon afterward, Mr. Paty was attacked and beheaded in the street. President Emmanuel Macron, whose government has been moving right on law and order as the electoral competition with Marine Le Pen of the National Rally heats up, announced a series of measures aimed at limiting what he called “Islamist separatism.”
The reaction from Muslim religious and political leaders around the world ranged from supportive (the United Arab Emirates and some imams) to perfunctory (Kuwait and Saudi Arabia) to sulfurous, with Malaysian former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad helpfully tweeting that Muslims had the right to kill “millions of French people” in retribution for French colonialism.
But the most significant reaction came from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose country is embroiled in confrontations with France in the Eastern Mediterranean. “Macron needs mental treatment,” Mr. Erdogan said, calling for a Turkish boycott against French products. “What is the problem of this person Macron with Muslims and Islam?”
That a controversy over Islamism should turn into a diplomatic standoff between Turkey and France highlights the dramatic changes in the Middle East and the Mediterranean that the incoming Biden administration will have to address. Since the Democrats were last in office, Saudi Arabia has begun to disengage from the business of supporting radical Islamism, and Turkey and Qatar have picked up the fallen banner. When Europeans these days talk about foreign funding for radical preachers, Turkey is often the source. And when Gulf Arabs like the Emiratis talk about the danger of radical Islamist regimes, they worry more about Turkey even than Iran.
What we are looking at is the rise of a new transregional alignment. Think of it as the Axis of Abraham, linking Mr. Macron’s France with Greece, Cyprus, Israel and the U.A.E. While some observers have pooh-poohed the new peace agreements between the Gulf Arabs and Israel (and the clear Saudi support for them) as empty theater intended to help prop up President Trump, in reality the Abraham Accords reflect a major shift in regional dynamics.
The Gulf Arabs now see their own security organically linked to Israel and intend not only to exchange ambassadors but to work with the Israelis on securing the region. This means, among other things, a change in their relationship with radical Islamist groups. A House of Saud that permits Israeli commercial flights over its territory cannot simultaneously serve as the champion of hard-line Salafism.
For the French, who worry about Turkey’s support for radical Islamist separatist groups within France as well as its role in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean, the U.A.E. is a natural partner. The two countries have longstanding defense and economic ties, and with the U.S. apparently looking to reduce its profile in the Middle East as Turkey throws its weight around, their common interests are growing.
For Democrats, this is complicated. Mr. Erdogan has long-lasting and close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood—a group that enjoyed close relations with the Obama administration, which helped pave the way for the short-lived Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt under former President Mohammed Morsi. Some Democrats continue to see groups like the Brotherhood as potential partners for America against more-radical and violent groups like al Qaeda and ISIS as well as authoritarian rulers like Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi and the Gulf royals.
Meanwhile, one of the strongest impulses in Democratic foreign-policy thinking is animosity against Saudi Arabia, a mostly silent but highly influential member of the emerging new axis. The lack of human rights in the kingdom, its long record of supporting dangerous currents in the world of radical Islamism, its deep ties to GOP stalwarts like the Bush family, and its role as a lead producer of fossil fuels all rub Democrats the wrong way. Bitter Saudi opposition to the Iran nuclear deal and its icy relations with the Obama administration—and warm relations with Mr. Trump—don’t help.
The emerging Axis of Abraham connecting France, Israel and the U.A.E. may well be the best partner for the U.S. going forward, but the road ahead is not easy. The Emiratis, Saudis and Israelis want a say in any new negotiations with Iran and will be working with the Trump administration in its closing weeks to create new facts on the ground. Turkey remains a member of NATO and there are good reasons why America might prefer to narrow rather than widen the gap with Ankara. Russia, bracing for an adversarial relationship with the new administration, will play the spoiler where it can. Iran still has its centrifuges and network of regional proxies.
The Middle East will not and should not be the incoming Biden administration’s highest foreign-policy priority. But getting it right is going to take some hard thinking.
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Appeared in the November 10, 2020, print edition.
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