Japan’s Biden Jitters From Tokyo, a pointed Taiwan question for the President-elect.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-biden-jitters-11609197375?mod=opinion_lead_po
In a 2020 campaign with little foreign policy substance, the idea Joe Biden mentioned most was restoring alliances. Which alliances? With Mr. Biden’s inauguration less than four weeks away, some allies in the Asia-Pacific are apprehensive.
Last week Japan’s number-two civilian defense official told Reuters: “We are concerned China will expand its aggressive stance into areas other than Hong Kong. I think one of the next targets, or what everyone is worried about, is Taiwan.”
Yasuhide Nakayama added: “So far, I haven’t yet seen a clear policy or an announcement on Taiwan from Joe Biden. I would like to hear it quickly, then we can also prepare our response on Taiwan in accordance.” He also asked, according to Reuters, “How will Joe Biden in the White House react in any case if China crosses this red line?”
Hardliners in Beijing see democratic Taiwan as a separatist province and are determined to bring it under their control. They also want Taiwan’s advanced microchip technology. Meanwhile, opinion in Taiwan has moved against unification, especially as China reneges on its treaty obligations by arresting democracy supporters in Hong Kong. A Chinese military operation across the 110-mile Taiwan Strait during Mr. Biden’s term can’t be ruled out.
The loss of democratic Taiwan’s independence against its will would be a geopolitical earthquake. The Pacific balance of power would shift decisively in China’s favor. Asian countries would need to recalibrate their relationship with the U.S., with dramatic implications for global security and trade.
The U.S. goal should be deterrence. First and foremost that means arming Taiwan so the island can make a Chinese invasion costly even without American backup. The U.S. should also continue to lean on Taiwan to modernize its military forces and civilian plans for a defensive war.
The Trump Administration significantly stepped up U.S. armament of Taiwan, including missiles, mines and drones. Yet China is likely to pressure Mr. Biden to return to President Obama’s accommodating policy, perhaps using climate promises as sweeteners. China will also be watching to see if Mr. Biden continues the current Administration’s trend of allowing visits to Taiwan by higher ranking U.S. officials, which signal America’s interest in the island’s autonomy.
Mr. Biden is unlikely to commit the U.S. unequivocally to Taiwan’s defense, but China’s threats and military maneuvers near the island are increasing. If Mr. Biden wants to reassure U.S. allies in Asia, Taiwan is his first big test.
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