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Sixty years ago, the threat of population growth outstripping the ability of the Earth to feed, clothe and house people was real. That is no longer the case. We now face the opposite challenge. The West, including the U.S. and the rest of the developed world, are no longer having enough children to replace themselves. Simultaneously, in the U.S. there has been a sharp rise in out-of-wedlock births and father-less children. In a world consumed with identity politics, legalizing marijuana and climate change the problem of one-parent families has been ignored.
Aging and (ultimately for Europe and the U.S.) declining populations face us. Japan’s population declined by about 400,000 over the past twenty years. Europe’s population increased by sixteen million (727 million to 743 million) between 2000 and 2020, but only because of an estimated 40 million immigrants. The United States population grew by 50 million during the past twenty years, with about half the growth coming from immigrants.
Demographers use TFR (Total Fertility Rate) to determine whether a nation’s native population is increasing or shrinking. It is a measure of the fertility of an imaginary woman through her reproductive life. Replacement is 2.1. In 2019, the TFR for Japan was 1.37, for Europe 1.52 and for the U.S. 1.71. The last time a TFR of 2.1 was reached in the U.S. was in 2007. In contrast, in 1960 the TFR was 3.65. Economic growth, over time, relies on population expansion. If it doesn’t come through births, it must come by way of immigration. As the United States grew rapidly in the post-World War II period, TFRs averaged over 3.0. Where population growth exceeds replacement are in undeveloped countries in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, and in India and Indonesia. Even in those regions, TFRs are declining.
Problems associated from aging and shrinking populations, i.e., a smaller workforce supporting a larger retired population and greater use of healthcare, have been exacerbated by changing cultural mores and an abandonment of traditional Judeo-Christian values, particularly in the U.S. Out-of-wedlock births have increased, while births to married women have declined. And, it has been clearly demonstrated that out-of-wedlock births (70% of all births in a city like Baltimore) lead to drug and alcohol abuse, with criminality, poverty and illiteracy as their progeny. Not assuming responsibility for one’s actions leads to increased dependency on the state, and increased dependency leads to a loss of the dignity associated with work. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the percent of children living in two-parent households declined from 88% in 1960 to 69% in 2016, while the percent of children living with a single mother rose from 8% in 1960 to 23% in 2016. A survey by the Pew Research Center reports that the U.S. “has the world’s highest rate of children living in single-parent households.”