Joe Manchin May Have Just Killed Transformational Liberalism for a Decade By Philip Klein
Senator Joe Manchin (D., W. Va.) says he’s done with President Biden’s Build Back Better legislation. And if saying so on Fox News wasn’t enough, he added an explanation point in a statement released shortly after his appearance, in which he declared: “My Democratic colleagues in Washington are determined to dramatically reshape our society in a way that leaves our country even more vulnerable to the threats we face. I cannot take that risk.”
It is, of course, possible that once they stare into the abyss of defeat, Biden and Democrats may decide to finally cave and give Manchin everything he wants. For instance, he has indicated a willingness to vote for up to $1.75 trillion in spending, and said that he’s more open to picking one priority and fully funding it for a decade rather than starting lots of new programs, funding them for a few years, and hoping they get renewed. So there’s some reason for conservatives to keep the champagne on ice.
But realistically, this approach would require blowing up the bill that had been carefully negotiated for months just to squeak through the House, and getting progressives to swallow whatever Manchin wants whole. The expanded child tax credit that has resulted in monthly payments to families will expire at the end of the year. So trying to pass it next year — which would require every penny of the bill if fully paid for over a decade — would essentially mean creating a new program rather than extending one that’s already on the books.
Either way, even if something reemerges from the rubble, it is not going to be anything along the lines of the “transformational” type of legislation liberals envisioned earlier in the year. The idea was to augment the role of government in every aspect of individuals’ lives — with subsidized child care, a government takeover of preschool, more financing for college, a more generous Obamacare, and an expanded Medicare. Not to mention hundreds of billions of dollars in investments toward the Green New Deal. That magnitude of legislation is no longer in the cards, even if Manchin warms up to passing something.
What’s important to realize is that this doesn’t merely foreclose the chances of Democrats getting something transformational passed this year, but it likely blocks them from doing so for the rest of the Biden presidency, and perhaps for the rest of the decade. That is, Republicans are almost certain to retake control of at least the House next year given the historical performance of the party in power during midterms and Biden’s low approval ratings. So that means the earliest shot Democrats would have to unify control of Washington and have another go at it would be in 2025. However, traditionally, liberals have been able to pass transformational legislation with massive majorities (think of the New Deal and Great Society) and after multiple wave elections (see Obamacare). It’s going to be difficult for Democrats not only to get Biden reelected (or Vice President Kamala Harris) but to do so in convincing enough fashion to pass the sort of sweeping legislation that they want to. And obviously, that won’t be possible if Republicans win in 2024. Furthermore, if a Republican who wins in 2025 were to get reelected, it could be 2033 before Democrats get another opportunity to pass something as sweeping as they tried to this year.
Obviously, it’s hard to predict so many elections ahead of time. But there is a reason why liberals were reaching so high in 2021, attempting to pass historically massive legislation with historically narrow majorities. The reason is that they knew it could be their last opportunity to enact something game-changing for quite a while.
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