Science shows the vaccine mandates are no longer necessary Dr. Joel Zinberg
State and local vaccine mandates might be legal — but are they necessary or advisable? The evolving science says no.
This is a particularly pressing question now as many unvaccinated workers have or are about to lose their jobs. Nearly 3,000 New York City employees — including essential workers such as police officers, firemen and teachers — face termination for refusing the shots.
The time has come for reconsideration. Whatever justifications once supported COVID-19 vaccine mandates have largely disappeared.
Mandates are typically justified as a way to protect the population from infection. The more people vaccinated, the less likely anyone is to become infected and to transmit the virus on to someone else.
Mandate advocates argue that even if people decide to endanger their own lives by remaining unvaccinated, their decision endangers others by exposing them to disease. Moreover, they claim failure to vaccinate could lead to large numbers of sick people, overwhelming the healthcare system and interfering with others ability to obtain care for COVID-19 and other medical needs.
Vaccines are safe and remain the most effective way of protecting oneself against serious COVID-19 illness and death, even with Omicron.Charles Krupa/AP
The evolution of the pandemic and the emergence of the Omicron variant have undermined these arguments. When they were first authorized, the COVID-19 vaccines were highly effective in protecting vaccine recipients from infection. But vaccines’ effectiveness against transmission has progressively declined with successive waves of viral variants. With the now predominant Omicron variant, full two-dose vaccination is roughly half as effective against infection as it was against the highly transmissible Delta variant. Breakthrough infections are now common and not the exception.
The need to “flatten the curve” to preserve healthcare resources has also largely dissipated. As of February 9, 80% of ICU beds are in use nationwide, ranging from a low of 44% in Wyoming to 93% in Alabama.
But COVID-19 patients only fill 27% of the ICU beds nationwide, ranging from 10% in Connecticut to 42% in Idaho.
Sonya Morgan, a Registered Nurse, works with a COVID-19 positive patient inside the infectious disease unit at Helen Keller Hospital, in Sheffield, Ala., on Jan. 28, 2022.Dan Busey/The TimesDaily via AP
In New York, 78% of ICU beds are filled — but COVID-19 patients accounting for just 18% of the total ICU beds. Those figures are on par with the much-maligned Florida, where 82% of ICU beds are occupied, with just 17% of the total being COVID patients.
Before COVID-19, normal ICU bed occupancy ranged from 57% to 82%. Level 1 trauma centers and tertiary care centers routinely operated ICUs at 80% to 90% capacity. With some local exceptions, hospitals are not now exceeding their normal occupancies and are not near critical capacity levels.
Moreover, 44 states and the District of Columbia are reporting declining rates of new COVID hospitalizations over the past two weeks. Only 6 states are reporting increases ranging from 2% to 15%.
Nearly 3,000 New York City employees face termination for refusing the shots.Christopher Sadowski
As many as half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 are “incidental” COVID admissions — people admitted to the hospital for non-COVID reasons and without COVID symptoms who test positive on routine admission screening. While they still require isolation to protect other patients, incidental patients do not burden hospitals the way severely ill COVID patients do.
So it’s unlikely at this time that vaccine mandates would do much to decrease hospital admissions or safeguard resources for patients with other illnesses.
Finally, vaccine mandates make little sense in a population that is already highly protected. More than two-thirds of those eligible are fully vaccinated. The most vulnerable population, those 65 and older who account for over three-quarters of deaths, is 89% fully vaccinated. Accounting for the fact that many cases are mild and do not undergo testing, it is likely that half or more of the population has had COVID-19. Natural immunity following recovery provides at least as good immunity as vaccination and may last longer.
Vaccines are safe and remain the most effective way of protecting oneself against serious COVID-19 illness and death, even with Omicron. I encourage everyone to take them. But at this point, forcing people to get the shot just fuels unrest, has minimal impact on the health situation and deprives the city of essential workers. Officials like Mayor Adams may not want to look like they are backing down, but it’s the right call. Consent is better than coercion.
Joel Zinberg, MD, is senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute and director of public health and wellness at the Paragon Health Institute.
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