Russia’s Mercenary Power Play Putin’s aspirations extend far beyond the former Soviet Union.
France said last week that it will withdraw military forces from Mali, where Paris has led a counterterrorism campaign for nearly a decade. This is a setback for the fight against Islamic extremism, but it is also a victory for a Russian power play in Africa.
“We cannot remain militarily engaged with de facto authorities whose strategy and hidden objectives we do not share,” French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday of the Malian government. He added that the pullout of some 2,400 French troops could take as long as six months as France considers where in the region to re-station forces fighting Islamic State and al Qaeda.
Mr. Macron acknowledged that Mali is free to choose its security partners but warned that Russian mercenaries with “predatory intentions” were arriving in the country. “The junta which is in power after two coups d’etats considers them to be the best partners they can find to protect their power, not to fight against terrorism,” he said.
Mr. Macron is referring to Russia’s guns-for-hire Wagner Group. U.S. Africa Command recently confirmed the presence of the Russians and American officials have suggested they would be paid $10 million a month, though Mali denies it. The mercenaries’ numbers and influence are likely to grow as France pulls out.
Vladimir Putin told Mr. Macron in Moscow last week that the Wagner Group is a private outfit, not an extension of the Russian state. Sure. The group has extensive ties to Russia’s military and intelligence services, and Washington says it is owned by Putin associate Yevgeny Prigozhin. András Rácz of the German Council on Foreign Relations called Wagner “a classic proxy organization” used by the Kremlin “to extend its influence overseas without the visibility and intrusiveness of state military forces.”
Wagner supported Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine eight years ago, but it has a global reach. Its mercenaries have propped up dictators from Venezuela to Syria. The group has deployed to more than a dozen African countries, boosting Russian influence in the Central African Republic and allegedly committing war crimes in Libya.
“The Wagner Group has recruited, trained and sent private military operatives to conflict zones around the world to fuel violence, loot natural resources and intimidate civilians,” the European Union said when announcing sanctions in December. Brussels accused eight people tied to the group of involvement in “serious human rights abuses, including torture and extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions and killings.” The U.S. sanctioned Wagner in 2017 and has since added more restrictions.
Expanding the Kremlin’s influence across resource-rich Africa can do more than empower and enrich Russian elites. Belarus, now a Russian satellite state, weaponized migration last year to disrupt Europe from the east. As Mr. Putin gains more sway over governments across Africa’s many conflict zones, he could try to pressure the EU with refugees from the south. This would be especially threatening given that Europe could soon be struggling with an influx of Ukrainian migrants.
Mr. Putin’s chief foreign policy goal is the return of the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries to Russia’s sphere of influence, but his ambitions are broader. He wants to blow up the post-Cold War global order. As the West retrenches, American adversaries are taking advantage.
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