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What primary season has taught us so far

It may not feel like it, but we’re only two months into a seven-month-long primary season ahead of this year’s midterms. There are still thirty-seven states in which the voters are yet to have their say on the major parties’ candidates ahead of Election Day. In other words, it’s still early. But with the calendar front-loaded with attention-grabbing showdowns in important states like Georgia, Pennsylvania and Ohio, it’s not too late to tease out some big-picture takeaways. Here are three:

Few reasons for Trump to be cheerful

The least surprising thing about the Republican primaries so far is the lack of a definitive answer to the question of Donald Trump’s influence in the GOP. But brush past the black-and-white, pro- or anti-Trump dichotomy with which so much coverage oversimplifies the state of the modern Republican Party, and you find more reasons for Trump to be worried about his waning influence than evidence of an unassailable position at the head of the party.

The Georgia gubernatorial primary saw one of the biggest villains in the MAGA pantomime cruise to victory. In fact, Brian Kemp’s demolition of Trump’s preferred alternative, former senator David Perdue, was so total as to lose some of its broader political impact. Foregone conclusions just don’t capture the imagination as much as narrow wins. Trump would point to results elsewhere to demonstrate his power: the endorsement of J.D. Vance in Ohio, who saw a swift surge in the polls after he received the former president’s seal of approval shortly before primary day. One footnote to this sign of Trump’s power: Team Vance was confident of a late surge — and a primary win — with or without Trump’s endorsement. Spin, perhaps, or a hint that there is a bit more to the Ohio story than meets the eye.

Elsewhere, things get less clear-cut but no more reassuring for Trump. In Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz, Trump’s preferred candidate in the Senate primary, leads David McCormick by fewer than a thousand votes as a messy recount and legal scrap is underway. Hardly a thumping victory for Team Trump. Meanwhile, uber-MAGA firebrand Kathy Barnette managed to capitalize on base frustration with Trump’s choice of a more liberal Republican to secure a quarter of the votes. In the gubernatorial race, Trump endorsed Doug Mastriano, another hardliner, but only after he had already built up a commanding lead in the polls. Less kingmaker, more picking winners. Even if Trump’s endorsement proves to have helped get Oz over the line, the real message from Pennsylvania is that, contrary to claims of a cult-like party, the conservative base does not mindlessly follow their beloved former president’s orders.

Does this mean Trump is toast? Of course not. But he cannot escape the fact that May was his worst endorsement month since he entered politics. In an astute piece for the Washington Post, Jason Willick points out the ways in which Trump is a victim of his own success. “In part because of Trump’s influence reshaping the GOP,” he writes, “his distinctiveness within it is fading.” And so Trump-approved candidates find themselves focusing on an esoteric set of concerns (disputing the 2020 election, for example) because the gap between the mainstream GOP and its Trump faction has, in the areas that voters care about, closed quite considerably.

Progressives make some progress

On the other side of the aisle, progressives probably feel a little better than moderate Democrats when they look at the results so far. John Fetterman had a stroke a few days before Election Day and still routed blue-dog darling Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania. In Oregon, centrist incumbent Kurt Schrader lost to Jamie McLeod-Skinner, an Elizabeth Warren-endorsed progressive who capitalized on redistricting to take the now-bluer seat for the party’s leftist faction. Moderates will breathe a sigh of relief at the news that Henry Cuellar looks like he has clung on in South Texas after an uncomfortably tight run-off with Squad-approved Jessica Cisneros. Mostly, though, centrist Democrats will insist that it is early days, cling to the fact that progressives have mostly made inroads in safe districts and steel themselves for the long primary road ahead.

American democracy is doing just fine

One underreported good news story: huge turnout in the Georgia primaries and a functional, free and fair election in the Peach State. Democrats from Joe Biden down have spent months decrying “Jim Crow on steroids.” The MLB moved last year’s All-Star game out of the state because of accusations of voter suppression. And yet when the system was put to the test, people who wanted to vote could vote, and the votes were counted in an orderly, secure manner. What’s true in Georgia is true across the country. The recount in the Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary does not change that: even in a functioning system, very tight votes are, inevitably, going to be the subject of recounts and legal disputes. In other words, the mechanics of American democracy are in better shape than many have claimed.

…and what we are yet to find out

Will Sarah Palin pull off her comeback?

Will Blake Masters triumph in Arizona and further cement Peter Thiel’s status as the most important donor on the right?

In San Francisco, will voters recall radical DA Chesa Boudin? Speaking of California, will LA plump for a centrist former Republican billionaire in the race to be the city’s next mayor?

Does Liz Cheney have a future in the Republican Party?

Will progressive Democrats deliver a more decisive blow to the party’s moderate wing?

Stay tuned to find out.