Asia Times’ “China Center” newsletter: The Pelosi visit and the Chinese property market: David Goldman
The Biden Administration’s policy signaling on China has been confused and contradictory from the inception of the Administration, and the confusion around House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s rumored visit to Taiwan suggests that Biden’s foreign policy team blundered its way into a prospective crisis. At China Center’s deadline, Pelosi was en route to Asia, without confirmation or denial of a stop in Taiwan.
The seriousness of the present situation cannot be emphasized enough. Remnin University Professor Jin Canrong, one of the Chinese analysts most closely followed by Biden’s national security team, said Aug. 1 in an interview with the “Observer” (guancha.cn) website: “It can be said that in our offshore waters, whether in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, our military has advantages. Our ballistic missiles can cover the entire South China Sea, the air force can basically cover the entire South China Sea, and the navy has certain advantages over several US fleets. In addition, we have obvious advantages given our geographic position in electronic countermeasures and reconnaissance systems. If the US really wants to create friction here, it won’t be cheap.”
In off-record discussions in Washington, several US former top foreign policy officials expressed doubt that Pelosi planned a trip to Taiwan without consulting the White House. How the visit was first mooted suggests an amateurish attempt at plausible deniability. Pelosi did not announce a visit to Taiwan, and no American media outlet has confirmed such plans. Instead, the first mention of a possible visit came from the London Financial Times July 18, citing six separate sources. That is not eavesdropping at a hotel lobby bar, but a deliberate leak. The newspaper also said that the Administration was divided over whether Pelosi should visit Taiwan.
From the standpoint of protocol, a visit from the Speaker of the House is perilously close to a visit from the Vice President, who is first in line in presidential succession. The Speaker is second in line. A visit from a US vice-president to Taiwan would count as an overt repudiation of the 1972 Shanghai Communique which established diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing on the strength of the One China policy. A visit from the Speaker is the next worse thing. According to the Chinese readout of the Biden-Xi call last week, the Chinese president warned that “playing with fire will set you on fire.” We cannot recall a more menacing statement from a Chinese leader since diplomatic relations were established.
It is possible, to be sure that Pelosi – who created an incident in 1991 by visiting Tiananmen Square just two years after the suppression of demonstrations there – might have done this without consulting the Administration, perhaps to show that Democrats can be tough in China with a view towards the November Congressional elections. It is unlikely that Pelosi would be so naïve. It is more likely that the Biden Administration was playing cute.
True or not, that is how China sees the matter. “A statement from the American side is most intriguing, to the effect that the White House does not control the actions of the Congress, which is an independent branch of government. The point of this rhetoric is that the White House wants to keep its own response flexible. What the White House is implying is that the same isn’t its responsibility, although it obviously will control the corresponding elements of the game,” wrote Shen Yi, a professor of politics at Fudan University, in the “Observer” website July 29.
If the Pelosi trip was a too-clever-by-half gambit by Washington, it has created a serious problem. If Pelosi does not go to Taiwan, it will look like Washington succumbed to Chinese bullying. If she does go, China will respond in some dramatic fashion.
President Biden told reporters that the military doesn’t like the idea of a Pelosi visit to Taiwan. Gen. Lloyd Austin, the Secretary of Defense, comes from the Air Force, historically the most cautious of the service branches (the Navy has a reputation for recklessness).
Strategists associated with the Air Force have expressed extreme caution about engaging China militarily “Whereas Chinese leaders used to view a military campaign to take the island as a fantasy, now they consider it a real possibility,” wrote Prof. Oriana Skylar Mastro last year. “Many U.S. experts worry that China could take control of Taiwan before the United States even had a chance to react. Recent war games conducted by the Pentagon and the RAND Corporation have shown that a military clash between the United States and China over Taiwan would likely result in a U.S. defeat, with China completing an all-out invasion in just days or weeks.”
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