RUTHFULLY YOURS

Will the proposed Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria boost or undermine US interests?

*During the October 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, top Jordanian military officers warned their Israeli counterparts that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, transforming Jordan into a uncontrollable terrorist heaven, haunting the highly vulnerable pro-US regimes of the oil-producing Arab Gulf states, as well as the pro-US Egypt.

*In June 1967, Israel gained control over the topographically-dominant mountain ridges of the Golan Heights, Judea and Samaria, in a preemptive war against Egypt-Syria-Jordan, which dramatically enhanced its posture of deterrence.

Israel was transformed from a violence-inducing national security-consumer to a violence-deterring national security-producer, evolving into a unique force-multiplier for the US, constraining the maneuverability of anti-US rogue entities.

*The mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – 3,000 ft. above the Jordan Valley and 2,000 ft. above pre-1967 Israel – play a major role in determining the survival of Israel, the pro-US Hashemite regime in Jordan and Jordan’s neighbors in the Arabian Peninsula.

*Israel’s control of Judea and Samaria has eliminated much of the threat (to Jordan) of a Judea and Samaria-based Palestinian terrorism and has deterred domestic and regional anti-Hashemite elements.

*For example, in 2022, the Iranian-inspired tension along the Syria-Jordan border – from the Golan Heights to Iraq – is intensifying.  It features Iranian-made drones and cyberattacks on Jordan, as well as an increasing infiltration by Syria-based Iranian terrorists, arms smugglers and drug traffickers. Iran’s Ayatollahs aim at toppling the Hashemite regime, extending their reach toward the Mediterranean, undermining the US’ strategic posture in the Middle East, and intensifying the lethal threat to Israel and Saudi Arabia (Jordan’s southern neighbor).

*Jordan may not be able to face the escalated Iranian threat on its own. While it does not rely on an effective US or Arab military deployment, it perceives Israel as its only proven ally, which has systematically flexed its military muscle against Iran. Moreover, Israel’s posture of deterrence emboldens Jordan, in the face of the Iranian threat, as it did in prior threats posed to the Hashemite regime from the Syrian front.

*For instance, on September 18, 1970, the pro-USSR Syria invaded the vulnerable, pro-US Jordan in an attempt to topple the Hashemite regime, which was entangled in a civil war against Palestinian terrorist organizations.  A successful invasion would trigger an anti-US domino scenario throughout the Arabian Peninsula, at a time when the US was heavily dependent upon Persian Gulf oil.

*However, the invasion was rolled back on September 23, largely, due to Israel’s posture of deterrence, which emboldened the Jordanian military and deterred Syria.
Israel would not possess such pro-US strategic clout, if it were not in control of the Golan Heights and the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

*Israel’s posture of deterrence spared the US the need to deploy its own troops, in order to avoid an economic and national security blow. It denied the USSR a strategic bonanza.

*An Israeli retreat from the overpowering mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – back to the pre-1967, 8-15-mile sliver along the Mediterranean – would obliterate Israel’s posture of deterrence and deny the US a major force-multiplier. It would transform Jordan’s western border (with the proposed Palestinian state) into the straw that would break the Hashemite back, converting Jordan into a platform of anti-US global Islamic terrorism in the mold of Libya, Yemen, Iraq and Syria, intensifying the threat to all pro-US Arab regimes.

*The impact of the proposed Palestinian state on the region and US interests is most credibly assessed against the backdrop of the Palestinian track record:

–The intra-Arab Palestinian track record of subversion and terrorism against Egypt (1950s), Syria (1960s), Jordan (1970), Lebanon (1970s) and Kuwait (1990).

–The close Palestinian ties with Nazi Germany, the USSR, Moslem Brotherhood terrorists, European and Latin American terrorist organizations, Iran’s Ayatollahs, Saddam Hussein, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela.

–And, the Palestinian reaction to the unprecedented Israeli concessions of 1993 (relocating the PLO leadership and 100,000 Palestinian terrorists to Gaza, Judea & Samaria; retreating from 40% of Judea & Samaria; offering to retreat to the pre-1967 lines) and 2005 (uprooting all Jewish communities and IDF presence from Gaza): unprecedented hate-education, mosque incitement, terrorism, glorification of homicide bombers, the systematic violation of commitments, the oppression of Palestinians and forcing a massive flight of Christians.

Based on its well-documented track record (rather than speculative, future track record), the proposed Palestinian state would be a rogue entity, adding fuel to the Middle East fire, adversely affecting the US economy and national security, adding an anti-US vote at the UN, and enhancing Russia’s, China’s and Iran’s strategic foothold in the critical intersection of Europe-Asia-Africa between the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf.

Since leopards don’t change spots – only tactics – therefore, the proposed Palestinian state, on the one hand, and US values and national security interests, on the other hand, constitutes a classic oxymoron!