RUTHFULLY YOURS

Something that apparently surprised government bureaucrats and left-wing commentators but is, in fact, completely predictable is happening: The growth in new monkeypox cases is leveling off and may be starting to decline, and the government had little to do with it. In New York City — the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak — the seven-day average of new cases actually peaked at the end of July and has been declining since. Similarly, new cases in California — the other most common site of U.S. illness — appear to have peaked in early August and subsequently declined.

Contrary to what some observers think, there is nothing perplexing about these developments. Economists have long known that people voluntarily change their behavior to avoid the risks and costs of infectious diseases. These changes in individual behaviors usually precede any government action and have a greater impact.

During the Covid pandemic, studies of cellphone-mobility data showed that people started to reduce their time outside the home and that businesses had declines in customer traffic before the government-imposed lockdowns. Canadian economist Douglas Allen reviewed nearly 20 studies that distinguished between voluntary and mandated lockdown effects. All of them found that mandated lockdowns had only marginal impact and that voluntary changes in behavior explained most of the changes in cases and deaths.

The current monkeypox outbreak is unusual in that it involves human-to-human transmission and has been almost exclusively between men who have sex with other men. We would expect members of the gay and bisexual community who value their health to engage in self-protective behavior.

A CDC survey confirms that men who have sex with men are voluntarily taking steps to lower their risk of monkeypox. Half of respondents reduced the number of sex partners, reduced one-time sex partners, and reduced partners met on dating apps or at sex venues.

The decrease in monkeypox case growth is not related to government mitigation efforts which have been disorganized and ineffective. The vaccine has only become widely available in the past few weeks and it requires two doses given four weeks apart to work. That means it’s unlikely that vaccination efforts have made a significant contribution to declining numbers of new cases.

Gay and bisexual men were better informed and more nimble than government health authorities who, in a fit of political correctness, resisted warning them to limit sexual activity. These authorities, who claimed they were trying to avoid stigmatizing gay and bisexual men, were not doing them any favors. As with Covid, monkeypox has confirmed that people are smarter and more proactive than government bureaucrats give them credit for.