RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/house-midterms-past-the-point-of-no-return

The midterm elections are now two weeks away. Some political commentators have an interest in portraying them as one big, suspenseful, down-to-the-wire contest. Maybe some of those commentators are partisan. Maybe some just think it’s good for business. But the fact is, at this point, the midterm results, as far as the House of Representatives is concerned, are pretty much set in stone. Republicans are going to win. Democrats are going to lose. The Senate is moving in that direction, too. It might already be there.

“What’s about to happen is very obvious,” said one Republican deeply involved in midterm races. “Voters think the economy sucks. Voters think Joe Biden sucks. Therefore, voters think Democrats suck. End of discussion.”

Most people wouldn’t put it quite so bluntly. Or maybe they would. In any event, here is a quick, step-by-step synopsis of how things came to this point over the last 18 months:

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1) One party, the Democratic Party, controls the House, the Senate, and the White House.

2) The party’s margins of control in both the House and the Senate are so thin that even a narrow midterm loss would result in loss of the majority.

3) The opposition party has always been in a strong position to win because unpopular presidents like Biden, with an approval rating of 42.6% in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, always lose seats in the midterm elections.

4) Economic events, especially inflation, have unfolded in a way that favors the opposition party.

1. A lot of people are asking me for my predictions. I expect to make final forecasts right before election day. However, to save time and not have to respond to lots of individual emails, an update is provided below. After the election, I will discuss the results and the implications for 2024 at the Restoration Weekend conference of the David Horowitz Freedom Center, in Phoenix, November 10-13.  There are many substantive speakers at this event on a wide variety of topics.  Information is provided below. At the 2018 event I was on a panel discussing the 2018 results right after a talk by Victor Davis Hanson. So, in a sense, thinking of a rock concert, Hanson “opened” for me.  

https://restorationweekend.org

2. Certain things seem pretty clear, and other things are very unsettled.  Republicans seem to have momentum, both in House, and Senate races. If you don’t believe me, look at Nate Silver’s models and forecasts at fivethirtyeight.com. Nate Silver’s model predicts the chances of a GOP takeover of the House are 80%. Two weeks ago, the GOP chances for control were 68%.  Most forecasts (RCP, Larry Sabato, Cook Political Report, 538) project   final House numbers for the GOP in a range of 230 to 240. Redistricting, which was played to the hilt in many states by both parties to the extent they could, has limited the number of competitive races. Ohio and Illinois are probably the two states with the most partisan redistricting.  House races may produce some strange results this year. The Democrats could win and hold Alaska’s only House seat. A Republican could win a House seat in Rhode Island. 

For the Senate, Silver has GOP chances are 45%, and were 29% two weeks ago. In other words, the GOP looks likely to win the House, and the Senate control is very much a tossup. Silver’s model incorporates among other factors, polling results (higher weights to more recent polls, and those with greater historic accuracy), as well as state or district voting history. 

At the moment, many Senate races are in play. Democrat-held seats which could shift include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Washington State and Colorado are uphill for Republicans, but very good candidates have made these races competitive.  GOP held seats in play include Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and maybe Utah and Iowa. One big difference between the parties is that vulnerable Democrats are all incumbents. Three of the four most vulnerable Republican held seats are open- Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina. In most cycles, incumbency is a big advantage, especially in fundraising. Challengers are sometimes not picked until the late summer and are underfunded for the general election. 

On the other hand, one factor working for Republicans in some of the closest Senate races are likely big wins for GOP governors- Ohio, Georgia and New Hampshire in particular, as well as Iowa, and a stronger than expected  GOP candidate for Governor in Arizona. In Pennsylvania, the Democratic governor candidate seems well ahead, and is helping John Fetterman try to reach the finish line.

Incumbency may be a mixed blessing this year. Voters seem by and large miserable and unhappy (look at right direction, wrong direction surveys). Inflation and interest rates are high. Home values and stock market values have sharply dropped. We have a national crime wave, focused on cities where Democrats are in complete control, and politicians seem unable or unwilling to address the problem. Personal insecurity is a big deal. New York State has a close governor’s race, largely as a result of crime numbers. Bail reform, stifling how police can behave, greatly reduced police staffing, prosecutors more concerned with keeping criminals out of jail, than protecting their victims, are all making voters very sour on this issue. Covid lockdowns were often unnecessary and caused great economic damage, and very poor educational results with kids schooled via zoom. The incredible number of illegals allowed in the country at our wide open southern border suggests national lawlessness, and almost a complete abdication of responsibility by the federal government.