https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2022/10/21/wave-watch-is-the-bottom-falling-out-for-democrats-n2614836
I’m not prepared to make declarative statements about how November 8th is going to go, and you know what they say about counting chickens. But it’s increasingly looking like a red wave is cresting. One of the questions I’ve been pondering for the last few months is whether 2022 will look more like 2018 (when the opposition party had a good night in the House, but underperformed in the Senate, due to various dynamics) or 2014 (when Republicans appeared to be underperforming through much of the cycle before a decisive break at the tail end made it political bloodbath). Atmospheric clues and data breadcrumbs suggest that the latter historical analogue may end up looking more apt when the votes are counted in a few weeks. Consider this:
Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende calls this “a nice distillation of the ‘it is 2014 again’ theory of 2022.” It’s far from guaranteed, but it’s compelling. And if this is the Biden baseline, that’s dire territory for his party:
The hallmarks of a substantial wave are cropping up everywhere. Plausibly competitive races are looking…well, not: