https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19535/turkey-farewell-erdogan
Polls suggest that although the presidential race will be tight, the gap against Erdoğan is widening…. [T]he CHP-led opposition bloc, with the participation of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, would win a combined 55.4% of the nationwide vote.
Reuters reported that new polls show the opposition’s presidential candidate, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leading against Erdoğan by more than 10 percentage points ahead of elections seen by many as the most consequential in Turkey’s history.
Polling in Turkey can be a murky business. But with or without polls, realities spell existential danger for one of the world’s most anti-Semitic and disruptive leaders.
Nearly a month and a half before the most critical presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey’s modern history, it is still too early to make a guess as to who will win: all indicators show that May 14 will be an extremely tight race. The results may even be inconclusive: there may be chaos, vote rigging, allegations and objections from both sides, the electoral board having to struggle with which side it should politically favor, potential re-runs in disputed districts, further disputes and even potential street violence.
An overall re-vote is also one of the possibilities. Another is that the country’s Islamist strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, battling for his survival after 21 corrupt and autocratic years in power, wins the presidential race but that his party loses its parliamentary majority. This result will mean governmental and administrative chaos.