Wartime Intelligence Leaks Can Sink Allies If Ukraine’s air defenses are now at risk, the U.S. bears some of the blame.
The leak of classified U.S. documents related to the Ukraine war looks like a debacle at many levels—undermining the confidence of allies in the U.S., revealing how much the U.S. knows about Russia’s military deliberations, and above all betraying the weakness of Ukrainian air defenses.
The source of the leak isn’t known, which is disconcerting on its own. The documents first appeared on social media, and the press hasn’t been able to verify their authenticity. But the obvious alarm among U.S. officials suggests that much of the leaked intelligence is accurate. The Justice Department and Pentagon began a criminal investigation last week, for what that is worth.
The leaks are especially damaging because they disclose secret U.S. judgments about the progress of the war. It’s not the same as betraying the location of troop movements, but it’s close. The disclosure of how much the U.S. knows about Russian military plans could be a death sentence for sources in Russia.
The most troubling leak is that Ukraine’s air defenses could be defeated by May, which would give Russia air superiority and a huge tactical advantage. The Kremlin hoped air dominance would help it achieve an early victory, but Ukrainian air defenses held up well against the initial assaults.
Russia chose to keep its aircraft sorties in Ukraine to a minimum to preserve its expensive air force; instead it has relied on Iranian drones and cruise missiles. This has made it harder for Russia to disrupt Ukrainian convoys and artillery deployments.
But the leaked documents assess that Ukraine is running out of missiles. If Kyiv’s air defenses collapse, Russia will have free rein to attack Ukrainian ground troops and move to capture more Ukrainian territory.
The leak hands Russia vital intelligence that will complicate Ukraine’s decisions for its long-anticipated spring offensive. It may also give new confidence to Vladimir Putin that his forces can outlast Ukrainian forces.
The U.S. in particular has been far too slow in delivering advanced air defenses to Ukraine, which has had to manage mainly with old Soviet-era defenses. President Biden waited until December to authorize the delivery of a single Patriot missile battery to Ukraine, with another coming via Germany. France and Italy are providing their version of the Patriot. But none of these systems has been deployed.
That dereliction may now have serious battlefield consequences. After the leak, the U.S. has an even greater obligation to speed up deliveries of Western air defenses and advanced fighter jets such as F-16s that can defend the skies if Russia unleashes its fighters.
Meanwhile, let’s hope the intelligence leak is a one-time episode. If the leakers have stolen more documents, and this becomes a deluge, more than Ukraine will be in trouble.
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