The Oslo Accords Began Israel’s Folly With the Palestinians Negotiating with PLO leader Arafat instead of other local leaders has led to intractable conflict. By Amir Avivi
Barbara W. Tuchman opens her iconic 1984 book, “The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam,” with Rehoboam, who caused the Kingdom of Israel to splinter into Judah and Israel. If Tuchman were writing today, she might have ended it with another wretched chapter from the history of Israel—the great folly of Oslo.
Tuchman defines folly as the pursuit by government of policies contrary to its own interests, whose adverse effects are apparent in real time, with the availability of feasible alternatives. The perpetrators are a group, not a single ruler, whose leadership spans longer than a generation. Israel’s implementation of the Oslo Accords, which were signed 30 years ago this month, meets all her criteria.
The folly of Oslo lies not in the creation of Palestinian autonomy (or as Yitzhak Rabin repeatedly called it, “less than a state”), which was part of the peace agreement Menachem Begin forged between Israel and Egypt. This idea was popular in Israel. But the decision to negotiate with the Palestine Liberation Organization, a bloodthirsty terror organization devoted to the destruction of Israel, was an act of sheer folly. Viable alternatives existed, first and foremost local leaders in the Arab cities in Judea and Samaria and the Gaza Strip.
In the days between the 1991 Gulf War and Oslo, PLO leader Yasser Arafat was a regional outcast because of his support for Saddam Hussein against the American-led Arab coalition. His prestige and the PLO’s suffered greatly. Yet Israel allowed Arafat to become a global player and even furnished him with weapons.
The implementation of the Oslo Accords in 1994 began with the Israel Defense Forces’ withdrawal from city centers in Gaza and redeployment around Israeli communities. Arafat and the PLO immediately started building a domestic military industry to produce rockets, explosives and mortars and to dig tunnels. In seven years, Gaza went from the stone age to firing rockets, in what may be the fastest military transformation in the modern age. The adverse effects of the Oslo Accords were abundantly clear. Israel saw them and could have responded but didn’t. I remember trying to wrap my head around this inaction as a young major in the IDF while building fortifications around Israeli communities in Gaza.
Rather than reassess, the Israeli government decided to expand the folly, withdrawing Israeli troops from Palestinian cities in Judea and Samaria as well. We military professionals on the ground weren’t surprised when the Palestinians created hundreds of explosives workshops there. Israel soon faced an unprecedented wave of suicide murderers and other terrorists. To restore security, Israel was forced to reconquer the city centers through Operation Defensive Shield, after more than 1,000 Israeli civilians had been murdered by terrorists across the country. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon exacerbated the situation further in 2005, when he unilaterally and unconditionally withdrew Israeli troops and settlements from Gaza, allowing a failed terror state to sprout in our backyard.
How miserable was Oslo? Research from the Israel Defense and Security Forum shows that Israeli civilian casualties resulting from terror attacks increased ninefold in the years following the accords’ implementation (1994-2022) compared with the years since Israel’s founding (1948-93). But those tragic deaths aren’t the whole story.
The sad truth is that Israel unwittingly allowed the creation of a global terrorist network that directs international efforts to challenge Israel’s legitimacy and fuels anti-Semitism. The Arab citizens of Israel are now subject to intense Palestinian propaganda, while international funds provided to the Palestinian Authority support terror activities and the gradual takeover of Judea and Samaria. Palestinian curriculum is rife with Israel hatred, creating generations of future terrorists and diminishing the prospects of future peace.
The idea behind the Oslo Accords might have been noble, but the implementation was deeply flawed. I hope that after Mahmoud Abbas, Arafat’s 87-year-old successor, passes from the scene, conditions will allow a new and positive path forward, for the sake of Israelis and Palestinians alike.
Brig. Gen. Avivi serves in the Israel Defense Forces Reserve and is chairman and founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum.
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