Biden and the polls: He’s fallen and he can’t get up by Byron York
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/biden-and-the-polls-hes-fallen-and-he-cant-get-up
BIDEN AND THE POLLS: HE’S FALLEN AND HE CAN’T GET UP. In an interview with the Financial Times, the longtime Washington political analyst Charlie Cook noted that President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has been stuck below 50% for a long time, 2 1/2 years, and shows no signs of rising above 50% anytime soon. “There seems to be virtually no elasticity there,” Cook said. “I wonder whether people have just changed the channel — they’ve just written him off.”
To understand what Cook said about “elasticity,” look at the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center. Biden started his presidency, in January 2021, with a 57% approval rating. He stayed around that level until the beginning of the summer, and then the slide began. By July 2021, Biden fell below 50% for the first time and has never returned. He fell below 40% in July 2022 and is at 39% today.
For 2 1/2 years, Biden’s job approval has bounced in about an 8-point range between highs in the mid-40s and lows in the high 30s. That’s what Cook meant about lack of elasticity — Biden doesn’t seem to go up and down in relation to his accomplishments or lack of accomplishments. He just sort of sits there, like voters have written him off.
Some Biden supporters like to point out that former President Barack Obama had some tough times in the polls before he won reelection in 2012. Yes and no. Obama began his first term, in January 2009, on a huge high — 67% approval in the Gallup rating. But by November of that year, Obama had fallen below 50%. The difference between Obama and Biden is 1) Obama occasionally rose back to 50% or higher, as he did in February and April of 2010 and January and May of 2011, and 2) although Obama fell to 40% a few times, he never sank below that.
The great hope of Biden partisans is that he will rise in the polls as November’s election approaches, as Obama did in 2012. In late August of 2012, Obama sat at 44%. Then, as the general election campaign moved into high gear, Obama rose to 52% by October. That’s where he was when he defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney and won a second term.
So can Biden replicate that feat? It seems safe to say, although not guaranteed, that his polls will increase in September and October, no matter whom he is facing as a Republican opponent. That just generally happens as Democrats and Republicans dig into their partisan positions with an election approaching. But where will Biden start from? Obama rose from 44% to 52% to win. What if he had started at 34% or even 38%? It would have been a much tougher job.
What about Trump? The former president lost the 2020 popular vote by millions but came fairly close in the Electoral College, losing three key states, Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, by a combined total of about 45,000 votes. Trump’s trajectory in the Gallup poll was different from Biden’s and Obama’s. Taking office in January 2017, he started low, at 44% approval, and fell to 36% by August. That was his low point. On the other end, Trump rose to 48% in February 2020 and 49% in May 2020. But in the last week before the 2020 election, Trump dipped to 45%, compared to Obama’s 52% at the same time in 2012. That was the difference.
Today, Biden is closer to Trump territory — actually, in December, he was 6 points below where Trump was at the same time in his presidency — than to Obama. To win in November, Biden will have to stage an energetic recovery.
Everybody knows the reasons for Biden’s unpopularity. Majorities in both parties think the 81-year-old president is too old for a second term. Biden-era inflation has made going to the grocery store an ordeal for millions of people. The world seems to be blowing up — Ukraine, the Middle East — which has many people worried that more might be on the way if Biden remains in the Oval Office.
Biden can only do so much to recover. His campaign and allies in the press are desperately trying to talk up the economy. (One recent Washington Post column began: “There’s only one appropriate word to describe the U.S. economy in 2023: ‘miracle.'”) As far as the world situation is concerned, certainly it cannot all be laid at Biden’s feet, but it does bring to mind the words of former Defense Secretary and CIA Director Robert Gates, who in 2014 wrote that Biden “has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.” Biden hasn’t gotten any better.
Finally, the one thing that Biden absolutely, positively, unquestionably cannot do is get any younger. Voters have watched in real time as the president slowed down in front of them. He shuffles. His voice sounds weak. He becomes confused and can have difficulty completing thoughts. Anyone who has ever had an elderly relative — and that is about everyone — knows what is going on.
The White House, the Biden campaign, and the Democratic Party know they are just one serious health episode away from a crisis in which they have to find a new presidential candidate in an election year. Biden’s handlers are working to make sure he gets his rest, but there is only so much they can do.
That doesn’t mean Biden can’t make it to November and win reelection. It could happen, especially in what promises to be the most volatile presidential campaign in anybody’s memory. But Biden’s current situation, including his polls, age, and job performance, just doesn’t look good. He has fallen so badly that getting up again will be a very difficult proposition.
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