Biden Takes Lying With Statistics To A Whole New Level
https://issuesinsights.com/2024/01/08/biden-takes-lying-with-statistics-to-a-whole-new-level/
The headlines on Friday were that the economy created 216,000 jobs, more than expected and a sign of continued strength in the economy.
“This morning’s report confirms that 2023 was a great year for American workers,” President Joe Biden said.
Hurray!
But wait a minute. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) previously reported that there were 157,087,000 “non-farm payroll” jobs in November. The number of these jobs in December, it now says, was 157,232,000.
That’s a gain of only 145,000.
So how did Biden manage to claim that the economy created 216,000 jobs in December?
Easy. All you have to do is cut the number of jobs in November by 71,000 and then measure December’s gain against that new, lower number.
Et voilà!
Instead of 157,087,000 jobs in November, the BLS now says there were 157,016,000. Subtract that from 157,232,000 and you get … 216,000!
Turns out, the BLS has been exaggerating job gains this way throughout 2023. But you’d never know that unless you dug into the data.
We looked at the BLS press releases each month in 2023, and compared the number of jobs it claimed had been created with its new “revised” numbers. Turns out, in every month but one the BLS initial number was wrong, often by wide margins and almost always to Biden’s benefit. It exaggerated the gains by 10% in January, 25% in February, 20% in May, 42% in October, and by nearly 100% in June. (See the chart below.)
And the press played along. Every month, headlines touted the strong job gains.
After the BLS said that 209,000 jobs were created in June, the press called it “latest evidence of economic strength.” Now the BLS says only 105,000 jobs had been created that month. What would the headlines have read if that had been the number?
The BLS initially claimed that the economy had created 199,000 jobs in November, and the press shouted that it was way above the 180,000 gain economists had expected.
Now the BLS says that just 173,000 jobs were created in November – less than economists had forecast.
We’re not saying that there’s something nefarious going on here or that the number crunchers at BLS are cooking the books to help Biden. The BLS is always revising its numbers as new data come in.
But as economist EJ Antoni said last summer, when this pattern first became obvious, “Every single month this year has seen its payroll numbers revised down. It’s difficult to stress how unusual this is as it’s so statistically unlikely. There is clearly something wrong with the estimations being done by President Joe Biden’s Department of Labor.”
Whatever the reason for the wild misses, the cumulative effect is to give the public a false impression about job growth in the country. So don’t be surprised if that big December number gets quietly cut in the months ahead.
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