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March 2024

Ukraine: Unintended Consequences by Amir Taheri

ttps://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20494/ukraine-unintended-consequences

Though Putin remains personally popular to a degree that would make any Western leader green with envy, the war is clearly losing popular backing. Latest polls, some sanctioned by Kremlin-controlled organs, show that the war enjoys no more than 30 to 40 percent approval among Russians. More interestingly, between 50 and 60 percent of Russians oppose a second wave of military call-up, something that the Kremlin’s military planners regard as imperative if Russia means to stay in the game.

Instead, NATO has found two new members, and not just anyone, because Finland and Sweden built part of their national identity on neutrality. Even worse for Putin, the US-led alliance is seeding up membership procedures for at least four other countries, notably Albania…

Being forced to sell its oil at a juicy discount to China is the last thing that Russia might have wanted, had it not been forced to do so because of Western sanctions.

What is amazing is that all those involved in this tragedy seem to be unable to read the runes even when plainly explained to them, notably that a war fought half-heartedly, almost as a weekend hobby, could go on without producing a winner and a loser, something without which no war can ever end.

Though Russian President Vladimir Putin remains personally popular to a degree that would make any Western leader green with envy, the war against Ukraine is clearly losing popular backing. Latest polls, some sanctioned by Kremlin-controlled organs, show that the war enjoys no more than 30 to 40 percent approval among Russians.

Even a year ago, some Russia-watchers believed that President Vladimir Putin might end his war on Ukraine with something like a victory in time before what could be his last re-election campaign.

However, now as Russians go to the polls, no victory is even remotely in sight.

The Strategy of Atrocity in the Gaza War by Michael Hochberg and Leonard Hochberg

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20495/hamas-strategy-atrocity-gaza-war

Hamas is perhaps the first regime in recorded history to fight a war designed to maximize casualties among their own population.

Failing to swiftly destroy Hamas and directly punish Hamas’s backers in Iran and Qatar will teach sympathizers in other parts of the Muslim world that strategies of atrocity should be added to the playbook of regimes challenging U.S. allies around the world. Even worse would be for Hamas to actually achieve a strategic victory and gain a Palestinian statehood; such an outcome would ensure that atrocity becomes a standard and widely used strategy for at least a generation to come.

The laws of war — primarily a Western innovation — are being weaponized by the enemies of the West, who do not subscribe to Western culture….. Today, the United States and our allies find ourselves at war with states and non-state entities who do not subscribe to the laws of war.

“[T]he Hamas terrorists killed by Israel in the ensuing war, and civilian non-combatants killed in the Gaza Strip while being used as human shields by Hamas. They are all considered “Martyrs” whose families are eligible to receive stipends of 1,400-12,000 shekels [$375-$3200] per month for life.” — Itamar Marcus; Founder, Palestinian Media Watch, palwatch.org, January 10, 2024.

The popular accusation of disproportionality is, in point of fact, aimed to prevent Western-aligned nations from achieving decisive victories. Even when the allies of the United States have the military capacity to break the will of the enemy, thereby imposing peace on the defeated, they will be forced to resort to fighting forever wars.

Why should the Israelis be compelled to allow aid into Gaza, when Hamas continues to hold hostage not just Israelis but also Americans? Under the guise of benevolence and generosity, international organizations promote forever wars.

If the type of warfare that we have seen from Hamas is allowed to succeed, and is not met with overwhelming violence and utter defeat, it will become the standard approach for those challenging Western dominance. If, however, we want to live in a world where the laws of war mean something, then the penalties for deliberately flouting them need to be terrible. Otherwise more regimes will be tempted to gain advantage through strategies of atrocity.

The US should stop imposing on our allies a doctrine of defeat.

Finally, the day after hostilities end, the Israelis must protect the new Gazan government from being undermined by renewed efforts to support terrorism and remilitarization.

The only path to peace, other than the destruction of Israel, is through a comprehensive Israeli victory and an unconditional surrender by Hamas in Gaza, and a post-war arrangement ensuring that the Gazans will not be able to commit such atrocities in Israel again.

Hamas is perhaps the first regime in recorded history to fight a war designed to maximize casualties among their own population. Pictured: Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen shows a photo of an Israeli soldier posing next to a Hamas weapons cache that was found at Rantisi Hospital in Gaza, at a press conference at the European Office of the United Nations in Geneva, on November 14, 2023. (Photo by Pierre Albouy/AFP via Getty Images)

“People should either be caressed or crushed. If you do them minor damage they will get their revenge; but if you cripple them there is nothing they can do. If you need to injure someone, do it in such a way that you do not have to fear their vengeance.” — Niccolo Machiavelli.