RUTHFULLY YOURS

Even a year ago, some Russia-watchers believed that President Vladimir Putin might end his war on Ukraine with something like a victory in time before what could be his last re-election campaign.

However, now as Russians go to the polls, no victory is even remotely in sight.

Putin is almost certain to win re-election and secure another six-year term in the Kremlin.

What many would look for is his share of the vote.

In the 2018 election, Putin collected almost 78 percent of the votes. So anything less than that might look like a setback related to the stalled war in Ukraine.

This may look more so because his two main adversaries Nikolay Kharitonov of the truncated Communist Party and Vladislav Davankov of the tiny New People’s Party have “if-and-butted” their support for the war.

The two challengers together may not poll more than 15 percent of the votes but, if there is a low turnout, they could highlight falling support for what more and more Russians see as a costly adventure.

Though Putin remains personally popular to a degree that would make any Western leader green with envy, the war is clearly losing popular backing. Latest polls, some sanctioned by Kremlin-controlled organs, show that the war enjoys no more than 30 to 40 percent approval among Russians. More interestingly, between 50 and 60 percent of Russians oppose a second wave of military call-up, something that the Kremlin’s military planners regard as imperative if Russia means to stay in the game.

This is perhaps why Putin decided to mention the war in his New Year message largely in passing, instead dwelling on how he had beaten Western sanctions and put Russia back on the path of economic growth.

As might have been expected as long as the Ukraine war is concerned, the law of unintended consequences is now in operation.

Putin triggered the war with a number of declared or implied goals. Chief among these was some sort of “reunification” not to say Anschluss to bring Ukraine, the prodigal son, back to Mother Russia’s arms. Putin’s understudy Dmitry Medvedev even compared the gamble to German reunification.

Now, however, more and more Russians wonder whether such a reunification, if possible, would be desirable. Adding almost 45 million Ukrainians to just over 140 Russian Federation citizens, of whom a quarter are not ethnic Russians, would mean an ethno-demographic earthquake.

Then there is the thorny problem of who will finance the rebuilding of a devastated Ukraine; certainly not a Russia dancing on the edge of bankruptcy.

Another aim of Putin was to inject new vigor in Russian nationalism. The unintended consequence, however, is that two million young Russians have left the country and hundreds have joined the Ukrainians as volunteers. Last week, some of those volunteers launched assaults on Russian territory in Belgorod.

Putin’s other aim was to weaken the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and even encourage some less enthusiastic members to rethink their adherence to the club.

Instead, NATO has found two new members, and not just anyone, because Finland and Sweden built part of their national identity on neutrality. Even worse for Putin, the US-led alliance is seeding up membership procedures for at least four other countries, notably Albania, which last week transferred to NATO its largest military base in Kucova, south of Tirana.

Putin also hoped to weaken if not provoke an end of the European Union, in the belief that “fat, lazy Westerners” won’t have the stamina for a major war.

Medvedev, yes he again, has expressed that fantasy a number of times by wondering “without Russia as liberator who would have marched on Berlin” to finish Hitler off.

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, public opinion in almost all NATO countries favored a reduction of military budgets. Since then, they all have increased defense expenditure; in some cases, like Germany, dramatically.

But on that score, too, the law of unintended consequences has operated by putting the process of joining the European Union into higher gear for a number of countries, including Moldova and Serbia, where Slavophilia should have favored Russia, not to mention Ukraine itself.

Another example of unintended consequences applied to the Russian adventure is Moscow’s dramatic dependence on support from China, a neighbor that Russia has regarded as a rival, if not an actual foe, for almost two centuries. Being forced to sell its oil at a juicy discount to China is the last thing that Russia might have wanted, had it not been forced to do so because of Western sanctions.

The law of unintended consequences also works against the Western allies. French President Emmanuel Macron has sent a cat among the pigeons by suggesting that NATO may have to put boots on the ground in Ukraine. He organized a showy conference, also attended by Britain, to highlight European unity but ended up revealing deep divisions.

The Ukraine war has also morphed into a divisive issue in the domestic politics not only of the European Union and Britain but also of the United States.

In Poland, Spain and France, farmers march against what they claim is unfair competition by Ukrainian farm products, while ignoring the fact that their respective governments are spending far more on defending Ukraine than Ukrainian farmers earn selling products in the EU. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán uses the Ukraine issue to milk the European Union more voraciously.

In the US, the war in Ukraine is already shaping up as a major issue in the coming presidential election, with putative Republican nominee Donald Trump claiming he could end it in an afternoon while President Joe Biden still muses about an ever-elusive victory.

What is amazing is that all those involved in this tragedy seem to be unable to read the runes even when plainly explained to them, notably that a war fought half-heartedly, almost as a weekend hobby, could go on without producing a winner and a loser, something without which no war can ever end.

The current confusion may have an opportunity for virtue signaling, as we saw in Pope Francis’ call for Ukraine to raise the white flag and end the war. But there, too, the law of unintended consequences has been triggered, with polls showing that the Pontiff’s pontification has increased the Ukrainians’ resolve to go on fighting on a no-tomorrow basis.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians and Russians continue to die.

Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987. He is the Chairman of Gatestone Europe.

This article originally appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat and is reprinted with some changes by kind permission of the author.