RUTHFULLY YOURS

Mao used to call America a “paper tiger,”  in appearance very powerful, but in reality nothing to be afraid of. That is the way China’s current president, Xi Jinping, views the Biden administration.

How do I know this? Just look at the way the Chinese “welcome” visiting Biden administration officials.

When Secretary of State Tony Blinken arrived in Shanghai last Wednesday, he climbed down from that big beautiful aircraft with “United States of America” emblazoned in huge letters across its sides to the bare tarmac, where minor Chinese officials were waiting to greet him. Not the foreign minister. And no red carpet. That is the Chinese version of a snub.

And Chinese commentators took notice. “Blinken arrives in China and is met WITHOUT RED CARPET. No band or anything,” said an X user with the name “Lord Bedo. “He’s welcomed like a somebody unimportant.” No kidding. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen received the same treatment a few months ago.

On Friday, Blinken met with President Xi in Beijing. His message? To express “serious concern” about China’s support for Russia’s war effort by selling them microchips, machine tools, and other dual-use equipment. “I told Xi, if China does not address this problem, we will,” Blinken told his American media pool.

While that may sound like tough language, what does it really mean? The U.S. will impose sanctions on China if they don’t stop those dual-use exports to Russia. Really?

Russia and China, like their ally, Iran, have become masters at avoiding U.S. sanctions. Following U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and gas over the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s oil and gas exports have continued non-stop, and with increased prices, are earning them more than ever.

For the U.S. to impose meaningful sanctions they would have to ban the sale to China of microchips and sensitive technology. If Biden were to do that, bye-bye Apple, bye-bye iPhone and Tesla, which recently completed a Gigafactory in Shanghai where it intends to roll out one million cars per year. That would bring U.S. stock markets crashing down.

So do you think Biden is really prepared to do that? Neither do I. Hence my comment about the U.S. becoming a paper tiger in the eyes of China’s leaders.

Over the past year or so, the Pentagon has been changing its force posture in the Pacific, moving away from large U.S. bases that can be easily attacked to a larger number of smaller bases. U.S. Marines are now pre-positioned in northern Australia, and a new type of Marine Corps regiment is now on Okinawa, one that is “designed to fight from small islands and destroy ships at sea,” according to the New York Times.

For the first time, the U.S. has sold long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Japan, giving them the capability of hitting the Chinese mainland in times of war. We have also concluded new basing agreements with the Philippines and with Papua New Guinea, and sent Green Beret trainers to Taiwan. All of these moves are aimed at bottling up the Chinese navy inside the first chain of islands beyond the Asian mainland, and denying them access to the blue waters of the Pacific.

“We have actually grown our combat capability here in the Pacific over the last years,” the Times quoted Adm. Samuel J. Paparo Jr., the incoming commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, as saying. “But our trajectory is still not a trajectory that matches our adversary. Our adversaries are building more capability and they’re building more warships — per year — than we are.”

That is not going to change any time soon. The Chinese already have more warships – over 300 – than the U.S. Navy, and they are churning them out like popcorn. Perhaps instead of puffing out his chest and making Paper Tiger claims, Secretary of State Blinken would do better to speak more quietly and grow that stick.