Israel Has Chosen The Least Bad Of Bad Alternatives Andrew I. Fillat and Henry I. Miller
https://issuesinsights.com/2024/04/29/israel-has-chosen-the-least-bad-of-bad-alternatives/
History frequently offers insight into present-day events. Far too often that perspective is ignored either because of a lack of knowledge, the mistaken belief that it has no relevance in today’s world, or discomfort over the challenge that that knowledge presents. The war in Gaza does have an historical precedent, albeit one on a far grander scale.
Bear with us as we unpack the analogy …
As the endgame of World War II in mid-1945 became focused on the planning of “Operation Downfall,” the invasion of the Japanese homeland, the decision was made to deploy the first (and last) atomic weapons ever used in warfare. This was not a choice taken lightly and was repugnant to President Harry Truman and many of his advisers. But it was made based on a grim calculus comparing the hope that the bombs would force an immediate surrender (at a cost of more than 100,000 civilian lives), against the anticipated casualties and impact of an invasion of Japan’s home islands.
An article written by one of us (Dr. Miller) last year delves into the background. After experiencing 18,000 dead and 78,000 wounded in capturing Iwo Jima and Okinawa (two relatively small islands), the magnitude of the resistance was understood. And unlike in those battles, a mainland invasion would face troops who could be easily resupplied, making them even more difficult to dislodge.
In that 2023 article, a Marine four-star general and historian is quoted as saying there were no post-invasion plans for the six Marine divisions (each 23,000 strong) in Operation Downfall because they were expected to be decimated and non-functional after invading Honshu to make way for the Army. In other words, it was expected that just to commence the invasion, some 100,000 allied lives would be lost, along with far more Japanese killed. Estimates of subsequent American deaths neared 1 million, with at least 5 million Japanese expected to perish.
It was against this backdrop that Little Man and Fat Boy, the uranium- and plutonium-based atomic bombs, respectively, were deployed and were ultimately successful in ending the years of bloodshed.
Today in Gaza, the Israelis face an enemy not unlike the fanatical Japanese troops, some so driven that kamikaze missions threatened our troops and warships, and others determined to fight to the death of the last man. The source of the motivation was, and is, not particularly relevant. Fanaticism is fanaticism, and neither the Japanese nor the Hamas fighters pay any heed to civilians who get in the way. In Hamas’ case, even worse is that their civilians are effectively being used as human shields and pawns for negotiations.
Israel does not have the option of a conflict-ending super-weapon in this small and congested arena, and in any case, it appears that, unlike the emperor of Japan, Hamas’ leaders have no concern for Gaza’s citizens and would not surrender in order to spare them. One might fantasize about strategic bombing of Iran to dry up support for its proxies, but, at least for now, the politics makes this unlikely.
Instead, therefore, Israel must do what our troops did not have to – fight the enemy on its home turf with vast numbers of civilians complicating operations. Israel is in a position very similar to the Allied forces in our analogy, but without the option for a quick, decisive, if painful, end. There is no question in our minds that the Israelis are attempting to be as humane as possible to the civilian population, but Hamas’ tactics make that exceedingly difficult, and errors are inevitable.
We cannot predict how our fellow Americans of today would regard Truman’s determination to win the battle against the Japanese Empire with the use of atomic bombs. They would likely recoil at either an invasion or a decision to kill 100,000 Japanese civilians with the bombs. But the Truman administration didn’t poll the populace, and in the end, Americans did not have to face the consequences of an invasion that would have drastically reduced the number of post-war offspring who became the Baby Boomers.
However, Israelis do not have that luxury. They know exactly what Hamas, Iran, and other proxies want: the expulsion of Israelis “From the River to the Sea,” and the total annihilation of Israel and its people. Israel is faced with fewer options than we had in 1945.
It is with that mindset, informed by history, that we should view the events in Gaza. Sometimes, war is the only option for survival. Israel, it seems to us, has chosen the least bad of bad alternatives. It is not the first to face this depressing reality.
Andrew I. Fillat spent his career in technology venture capital and information technology companies. He is also the co-inventor of relational databases. Henry I. Miller, a physician and molecular biologist, is the Glenn Swogger distinguished fellow at the American Council on Science and Health. They were undergraduates together at M.I.T.
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