Iranian Mullahs In A Panic As Their ‘Axis Of Resistance’ Collapses Struan Stevenson
Suffering a series of devastating blows, the Islamic Republic of Iran is now like a wounded beast, dangerous and unpredictable. Having seen their “axis of resistance” crumble, with the effective decapitation of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the mullahs’ regime has now suffered its greatest catastrophe, with the fall of their closest ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s ailing and increasingly confused Supreme Leader, regarded Syria as Iran’s 35th Province.
For decades he funneled more than $50 billion and tens of thousands of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel and other Islamist militias into propping up Assad’s brutal regime. The sudden collapse of the Assad dictatorship has removed a fundamental pillar vital for the Islamic Republic’s regional strategy, creating a seismic upheaval.
The imminent arrival of Donald Trump as America’s 47th president, must seem like the final straw for Khamenei and his tyrannical mullahs. Trump unilaterally withdrew America from Barack Obama’s deeply flawed nuclear deal with Iran and introduced a campaign of ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions.
In a rambling speech last week to his senior officials in Tehran, the Supreme Leader kept repeating “Don’t be demoralized, don’t have despair”, as he tried to justify the massive loss in blood and treasure that his regime has squandered in Syria.
Western powers, gloating at the dismantling of Iran’s proxy allies, should now be wary of the theocratic regime’s next moves. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) warned at a conference in Bahrain that the Iranian regime has dramatically increased its production of highly enriched uranium, up to 60% purity, a hair’s breadth away from weapons grade. He says the mullahs, who are no longer cooperating with his inspectors, could develop a nuclear missile very rapidly.
Carefully watching how Western powers run for cover every time Vladimir Putin even mentions a potential nuclear retaliation, the Iranian mullahs may consider a nuclear threat their best option for clinging onto their diminishing authority in the Middle East.
There is also unsettling news of the development of lethal and incapacitating pharmaceutical-based agents (PBAs) – or chemical weapons – in Iran. Members of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which oversees the Chemical Weapons Convention, told their annual meeting in The Hague in late November, that in 2023 they uncovered leaked reports of fentanyl and medetomidine production in a range of complexes operated by the IRGC, the Iranian Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) and the IRGC’s Imam Hussein University.
Fentanyl and medetomidine are both potent incapacitating lethal agents, even if inhaled in small doses. The leaked paper indicated that large-scale production of the chemical weapons was underway, developing agents that can be aerosolized using a propellant, and developing delivery systems utilizing grenades, bullets, or drones.
The IRGC has already developed an expertise in the construction of kamikaze drones, which have been exported to Russia for use in Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine. Iranian drones are also widely used by the Houthi rebels in Yemen, disrupting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
The fear is that the mullahs’ regime, wounded and dangerous, could deploy drones loaded with chemical weapons for devastating attacks on civilians in Israel and further afield.
Apparently, the Imam Hussein University’s Department of Chemistry has developed tear-gas grenades and cartridges designed to weaponize medetomidine. These grenades can then be delivered by drones and would have a lethal effect on civilian populations or military personnel.
In a desperate bid to deter his enemies, it is feared that Khamenei could authorize the use of these chemical weapons. Now that direct Israeli air strikes have exposed the Iranian regime’s air defence system as virtually inoperable and its once feared missile arsenal as hopelessly inadequate at hitting military targets in Israel, the mullahs are desperately searching for a strategic alternative.
Unlike traditional chemical weapons, fentanyl and medetomidine have legitimate pharmaceutical use, providing a perfect disguise of deniability for their supply and deployment. It should be remembered that Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons against his own people in Syria on at least three occasions between 2013 and 2018, at a time when he was receiving extensive military aid from Iran.
The mullahs were clearly aware of Assad’s lethal tactics but did nothing to condemn or curtail his onslaught. Indeed, it is thought that the infamous IRGC terrorist mastermind – General Qassem Soleimani – killed by an American air strike on the orders of President Trump in January 2020 – authorized the use of chemical weapons in Iraq, killing over 300 people during a nationwide uprising. There are even fears that drones loaded with chemical weapons could be deployed in terrorist attacks in Europe.
The West should heed the shriek of a wounded animal emanating from Tehran. The Islamic Republic is now dangerously unstable. There is no point in trying to negotiate with the Iranian puppet president Masoud Pezeshkian, foolishly regarded as a “moderate” by some Western leaders. Pezeshkian has presided over the execution of 562 prisoners, including 20 women, since he took office in August. He is no moderate and, in any case, takes all his orders from Khamenei.
The mullahs’ regime is at its weakest point since the 1979 revolution that brought them to power. Now is the time to support the 85 million beleaguered Iranian people who want regime change and want an end to oppression and tyranny.
The West must show moral support for the burgeoning Resistance Units of the People’s Mojahedin of Iran/ Mujahedin-e Khalq (PMOI/MEK), the main democratic opposition movement. The resistance will have gained great succor from the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and with moral support from the West, could achieve the same result in Iran.
Struan Stevenson is the Coordinator of the Campaign for Iran Change (CiC). A former member of the European Parliament representing Scotland (1999-2014), he served as president of the Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with Iraq (2009-14) and as chairman of the Friends of a Free Iran Intergroup (2004-14). He is an author and international lecturer on the Middle East.
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