RUTHFULLY YOURS

Vice President Kamala Harris lost soundly to President-elect Donald Trump, despite spending well over $1 billion on her campaign. And if those who voted for her are any indication, she might want to hang up her presidential aspirations, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.

The online national I&I/TIPP Poll asked 1,411 adults across the country this question: “In the 2024 election for president, did you vote for Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, another candidate, or did you not vote for president?”

Of those answering, 41% answered “Donald Trump,” 38% said “Kamala Harris,” 15% said “Did not vote,” 3% responded “Other,” and 3% preferred not to answer. The poll’s margin of error is +/-2.6 percentage points.

The political split is revealing: Trump received 85% of all Republican votes in the sample, while Harris took just 80% of the Democrats. Trump and Harris tied among independents, with 28% each.

But, Harris received fewer Republican votes (5%) than Trump’s 7% of Democrats. So not only did Harris get fewer votes overall, a major part of her loss can be attributed to Democrats defecting to Trump or third-party candidates.

To get at how voters perceive Harris and a possible future candidacy in four years, I&I/TIPP further queried poll respondents: “Vice President Kamala Harris is reportedly considering a presidential run in 2028. Which of the following best describes your feelings about this possibility?”

The possible answers included “Excited,” “Optimistic,” “Concerned,” “Scared,” and “Not sure.”

The responses aren’t encouraging. Among all those answering, 43% said they were either “excited” (18%) or “optimistic” (25%) over a future prospective presidential run by Harris. But an overall 43% called themselves either “concerned” (25%) or “scared” (18%). Another 14% weren’t sure.

What about by party affiliation? Among Democrats, 71% described themselves as either excited or optimistic. But fully 19%, or one in five Democratic voters, described themselves as in the “concerned/scared” camp.

Meanwhile, 67% of the GOP rank-and-file defined themselves as “concerned/scared,” versus 24% who said they were “excited/optimistic” about the possibility (the latter response, of course, doesn’t necessarily indicate actual support by Republicans for a Harris run).

Independents, the often-forgotten giant within the U.S.’ party-driven electoral system, fall 43% on the “concerned/scared” side and 36% on the “excited/optimistic” side for a 2028 Harris run, so her net support from independent and third-party voters is negative.

Taken together it’s hardly a strong vote of confidence for someone hoping for a future run after losing a major election.

But here’s where it gets even tougher for Harris. In a final question, I&I/TIPP asked only those who voted for Harris the following: “If Kamala Harris runs for president in 2028, how likely are you to vote for her?”

Here, the possible answers ranged from “Very likely” and “Somewhat likely” to “not very likely” and “not at all likely,” with a default answer of “Not sure.”

Among those who voted for Harris, 82% said they were either very likely (58%) or somewhat likely (24%) to vote for her again. That leaves a total of 17% in either the “not likely” camp (7%) or “not sure” (10%) group.

No doubt, a losing candidate who can’t count on nearly one if five of his or her previous voters has a big job ahead. It’s a task that will become even harder if Trump, in his second term, keeps his promises to the American people.

One might well wonder: Why ask questions about 2028? Isn’t the election over? The answer, of course, is yes. But Harris had barely conceded defeat in 2024 when her surrogates and many in the media began pushing her to run again in 2028.

Barely had the 2024 election ended than polls popped up asking voters which Democrats they would support in 2028. Among all potential candidates, Harris has name recognition and has already run a national campaign, albeit a losing one.

Would she win the nomination again?

A Puck News/Echelon Insights poll found that 41% of those described as likely Democratic voters said they would vote for Harris as the party’s nominee in 2028. She was followed by California’s controversial Gov. Gavin Newsom at 8%, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7%, former vice presidential candidate and current Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg both at 6%.

She also has backing within the party.

“I would be on board 100% with whatever she decides to do,” Yvette Lewis, a Democratic National Committee board member is quoted as saying. “I think she is a phenomenal person. I think she was a phenomenal candidate.”

But, as the I&I/TIPP Poll clearly showed, almost one in five Democrats who voted for Harris now has reservations about doing so again in the future.

That includes some influential Democrats, such as big-buck DNC fundraiser Lindy Li, who ripped the party for its “delusions” regarding a possible comeback for Harris and then quit the Democratic Party.

“This is not what America wants,” Li told Fox’s “America’s Newsroom,” in a scathing review of Harris’ 2024 performance.

“November 5th was a decisive defeat for the Democratic Party,” Li added. “She lost every single swing state. It wasn’t a squeaker like it was in 2016. This was a resounding defeat and, right now, Kamala Harris is indulging in delusions of running for governor of California, possibly in 2026 or even president again in 2028. America has said, ‘We don’t want to be coconut-pilled. We do not want Kamala Harris.’”

Some others, recognizing her campaign liabilities and ties to unpopular President Joe Biden’s policies, are egging her on to run for the California governorship in 2026, according to CNN.

Harris has 10 years of experience there as a prosecutor and a senator, so she’s a known quantity. Plus, she wouldn’t have the political negatives she showed in a national campaign in far-left California, which has had so-called progressive leadership since 1999, Republican Pete Wilson’s last year as governor.

One other barrier is likely to be money. In a bit over four months, Harris blew through a cool $1.5 billion in running her campaign, but actually lost traction as time went on despite spending piles of cash. Will the Dems’ money backers willingly spend more to back Harris against a Republican challenger?

However, she’s not likely to quietly retreat into retirement, despite losing a chunk of support from her own voters after her 2024 defeat.

“What she‘s been saying to people over the last couple of weeks, donors, other supporters that she‘s been talking with is you haven‘t seen the last of me, I‘m not going quietly into the night,” CNN senior reporter Isaac Dovere said. “Advisers, people close to her are debating about what that means. They do not want her final official act ever to be essentially certifying Donald Trump‘s win over her, especially four years after January 6th.”

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.