https://www.thefp.com/p/the-german-establishments-last-chance
The winner of Sunday’s German elections has been known for months, almost since the outgoing government, led by Social Democrats and dominated by Greens, collapsed last November. As expected, Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats have finished on top, albeit with a flabbier than foreseen 29 percent of the vote.
Out of power since Merz’s intraparty rival Angela Merkel stepped down in 2021, the center-right party is back. But that prospect is not why 83 percent of voters—the highest turnout in the history of post–Cold War Germany—thronged the polls on Sunday.
German voters have decided that stopping mass immigration, legal and illegal, is a national emergency. And the party addressing it most directly is the Alternative for Germany. The so-called AfD finished second with 21 percent of the vote, doubling its share of seats. But many on the country’s center and left claim it is exactly the kind of party the country’s post-Nazi constitutional order is meant to exclude.
The 69-year-old Merz comes to power in a tricky position. He was a star of the Christian Democratic party in the old days, until Merkel bested him for the leadership at the turn of the century and sent him into banking-industry exile. Now, it would seem, a majority of Germans want him to carry out the AfD’s policies—but without the AfD. How? The question will be hard to resolve within the highly regulated (some would say semi-) democracy that Germany has been since the Second World War.
Germany is getting less efficient. Its railroads, despite the stereotypes, are among the least punctual in Europe—only 31 percent of its intercity trains arrive on time. It is getting poorer, too: The German economy has shrunk two years in a row. Volkswagen, Bosch, and other industrial giants have laid off tens of thousands of employees. And for years, Germany’s American ally has been raising the price of its decades-old alliance. First Germany was supposed to trade less with China. Then, once Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Amis demanded a boycott of Russian gas. Now Donald Trump is calling for a doubling of the country’s defense expenditures.
But the issue that has come to symbolize all these problems is migration. Germany’s foreign-born population has risen by millions since Merkel announced she would welcome refugees from the Syrian civil war in 2015. Assimilation has been difficult, as the buildup to election day made clear.
