Iran’s Endless Rounds of Negotiation: Delay, Deceive, Cheat by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21565/iran-endless-negotiation

  • The Iranian regime’s primary objective remains preserving its power. The mullahs see their nuclear program as the key to their survival.
  • Any agreement should aim for nothing less than the total and permanent dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. This means no enrichment, no reprocessing, no heavy-water reactors, and no stockpiles – anywhere on the planet — of enriched uranium.
  • The dismantlement and enforcement processes must not be outsourced to any international organizations or foreign governments…. Ensuring compliance must lie directly with the United States and its most trusted regional ally, Israel. Both countries have the intelligence capabilities, military readiness and political will to ensure that any nuclear dismantlement is not only thorough but irreversible.
  • Rounds of negotiations, verbal commitments or limited restrictions are invitations to cheat. The mullahs’ plan is one of delay and deception. America’s plan must be not to let them.

The Trump administration, after signaling a preference for dialogue over confrontation, is engaging in renewed a diplomatic effort to end Iran’s nuclear program. President Donald J. Trump has made clear that he is not seeking war. “I would prefer to make a deal,” he stated recently, “because I’m not looking to hurt Iran.”

Given the devastating costs of war, focusing on negotiation rather than on military intervention is a noble and responsible course of action. The Iranian regime, however, is not new to such diplomatic games of chess. The mullahs have mastered the art of prolonging negotiations: appearing cooperative while covertly advancing their strategic interests, especially developing ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, and operating proxies in the region, such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, not to mention Iran’s own Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as smaller militias.

Iran, a theocratic virtual dictatorship, has remained in power for more than four decades. It has survived revolutions, international isolation, crippling sanctions, assassinations of military leaders, and confrontations with powerful adversaries. The Iranian regime’s primary objective remains preserving its power. The mullahs see their nuclear program as the key to their survival.

The regime, in negotiations, invariably says all the right things, but its actions tell a different story. The Obama administration, in 2015, imagined that it had secured a historic deal with Iran. Subsequent reports revealed that Iran was continuously violating the terms of that deal by secretly advancing its nuclear work while simultaneously reaping the economic benefits of sanctions relief. This dual-track strategy enabled Iran to strengthen its economy and its nuclear infrastructure under the very deal meant to prevent it from doing exactly that.

The Trump administration must not permit any proposals that merely curb or “limit” Iran’s nuclear program. A deal that focuses on temporary restrictions — such as caps on uranium enrichment, the number of centrifuges, or oversight timelines — will only delay, not eliminate, the threat.

Iran has already demonstrated that it can wait out administrations, restart halted projects, and return to nuclear activity with even more resolve once restrictions expire. Any agreement should aim for nothing less than the total and permanent dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. This means no enrichment, no reprocessing, no heavy-water reactors, and no stockpiles – anywhere on the planet — of enriched uranium.

The dismantlement and enforcement processes must not be outsourced to any international organizations or foreign governments. Historically, they have failed to stop Iran or hold it accountable. Institutions such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Union have repeatedly been too slow or too acquiescent in responding to violations, while Russia and China have eagerly protected of the regime.

Ensuring compliance must lie directly with the United States and its most trusted regional ally, Israel. Both countries have the intelligence capabilities, military readiness and political will to ensure that any nuclear dismantlement is not only thorough but irreversible. This, then, means that American and Israeli experts should lead the verified destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites, with full access and no delays.

Above all, the US administration needs to resist the trap of prolonged negotiations. Iran has used this tactic for decades: dragging talks into multiple rounds, months, or even years, while, behind the scenes, continuing its nuclear work. Under the guise of diplomacy, deadlines repeatedly get extended, with no regard as to concrete outcomes. Trump, having reportedly given Iran a strict two-month deadline to finalize a new deal, seems to recognize this tactic. This is a crucial step in shifting leverage back to the U.S., but it must be backed by the credible threat of consequences if Iran fails to comply.

While seeking a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear threat is commendable, the administration must not lose sight of the regime’s history and intentions. Iran’s ruling elites will appear conciliatory while secretly violating agreements and expanding their power. Rounds of negotiations, verbal commitments or limited restrictions are invitations to cheat. The mullahs’ plan is one of delay and deception. America’s plan must be not to let them.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US foreign policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu

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