RUTHFULLY YOURS

The Iranian regime is once again celebrating having diplomatic negotiations with the United States, this time under the Trump administration. Tehran’s leaders have been framing these renewed talks as a positive that will enable them to retain their hold on power, and their nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs to unleash at a later date.

Iranian officials, including leading figures in the foreign ministry, have voiced optimism about the direction of diplomacy, portraying the Trump team’s willingness to engage as a step toward “mutual understanding.” They would like the world to believe that diplomacy is working — when in reality, it is a trap. The excitement in Tehran is not a signal of peace or cooperation; it is a victory celebration. Whenever a terrorist regime that chants “Death to America” starts smiling about negotiations, it is not diplomacy — it is a win.

Iran’s rulers are doubtless thrilled about “talks.” What is the alternative? A full-scale military operation targeting and destroying their nuclear infrastructure? That is probably the only thing that has ever truly terrified the mullahs. It has been reported that President Donald Trump waved off an Israeli proposal to strike Iran’s nuclear sites. His act was no doubt seen as a signal by Tehran that Washington would not act militarily.

The Iranian regime knows that without its nuclear program, it is nothing. It has no legitimacy and no protection from collapse. Its nuclear program is the regime’s survival and expansion plan — its insurance policy. Without it, the Islamic Republic stands naked before its enemies, vulnerable to the same fate as other fallen despots.

Iran, like North Korea, sees nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent, the only thing keeping it rulers safe from both domestic overthrow and foreign intervention. The Iranian people have risen up time and time again, risking their lives in nationwide protests. Every uprising threatens the regime’s weakened existence.

Iran recently lost its longtime loyal ally in Syria, the Assad regime. Syria’s new government, headed by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former commander of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (affiliated with al-Qaeda), rules under the protection and patronage of Turkey. Both Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are Sunni Muslims, hostile to Shia Iran.

Meanwhile, Iran’s once-powerful proxy terrorist organizations, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Hamas in Gaza — have been pummeled by Israeli strikes and internal fatigue.

What, then, is left for the Islamic Republic of Iran, a regime hated at home, isolated abroad, and stripped of regional muscle? One thing: nuclear weapons.

Iran’s ruling mullahs, who have been here before, know this playbook well. The moment Trump was elected, Iran rushed to ask the European Union to help resume negotiations. Why the sudden interest in diplomacy? Pure fear. The mullahs suspected that Trump’s second term might bring with it a more aggressive U.S. posture — possibly even military strikes. So, they did what they always do: stall, delay, and bait the West into negotiations. Talk just enough to ease the pressure, pretend just enough to appear cooperative, and wait out the clock. It is a scam they have been running for ages.

Economically, Iran is on the brink. Its currency is in free fall, inflation is out of control. China has been buying Iran’s oil at enormously reduced prices. Iran’s shattered economy is also a reason the regime welcomes talks. Talks offer hope of sanctions relief, currency stabilization, and international legitimacy — all while buying time to continue uranium enrichment behind closed doors. The West calls it a “deal.” Iran calls it a jackpot.

Just imagine the conversations happening behind closed doors in Tehran. Iranian officials are likely saying something like:

“Let’s see if we can get another JCPOA-style agreement, and protest that we need our centrifuges and low uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes, just as we did with President Barack Obama, and maybe even pull off another ‘sunset clause’ that will enable us to have an unlimited number of nuclear weapons in a short time. At least we can waste another two or three years pretending to negotiate. We can agree to pause enrichment a little bit, just enough to give them a diplomatic victory. Then we get billions in sanctions relief. We stabilize the currency, we ease the economy and domestic discontent, and regain legitimacy in the international community. Trump is so eager to get a discredited Nobel Peace Prize, but the Norwegians will never give it to him — to them, the ‘left’ is a religion. Their heroes are Castro and Arafat. Meanwhile, to show Norway how peaceful he is, Trump will let us, Russia and China off the hook. Poor fellow, it will not work. He will just find himself the ‘sucker’ and the ‘loser.’ Meanwhile he will have thrown away what could have made him a historic great. While he is are celebrating his ‘peacefulness’ in keeping America out of a war that was not going to happen anyway, we can keep on moving toward our bomb, our missiles and the miniature nuclear warheads to put on them. Quietly. And if we get caught? So what. The Americans will negotiate again!”

That is why enrichment limits do not work. They are reversible. Under the JCPOA, Iran was enriching uranium at 3.67%. As soon as the deal collapsed, the regime commenced enriching to near weapons-grade levels. The idea that you can contain or “monitor” Iran with inspections and enrichment caps is a lovely, romantic fantasy. Sadly, this regime cannot be trusted. It cannot be allowed to keep any part of a nuclear infrastructure. The only acceptable path is total dismantlement or permanent destruction. No centrifuges, no uranium enrichment, no stockpiles, no underground facilities. Nothing.

Negotiations have plodded on for nearly two decades. What has the West gained? Nothing. What has Iran gained? Everything. Time. Money. Legitimacy. Uranium enrichment. Nuclear weapons and ballistic missile advancements. Each round of diplomacy gives the regime more room to maneuver, more time to develop its weapons, and more resources to fund terror proxies across the Middle East and Latin America. The result is not peace — it is proliferation.

Unless the West finally gets serious, Iran will cross the nuclear weapons threshold and the world will not only face an extremist, predatory regime armed with nuclear weapons, but the mother of all arms races. The US and the West are sleepwalking toward disaster. This is not just a threat to the Middle East. It is a threat to the whole free world.

Unfortunately, the only solution left is to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. No talks. No deals. No illusions. It is time to bring these endless negotiations to an end.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US foreign policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu