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Trump Twitter Support Is a Boon in GOP Primarieshttps://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/08/15/trump_twitter_support_is_a_boon_in_gop_primaries.html By Sally Persons

Donald Trump has taken a lot of grief for his tweeting habit from critics who view his use of the social media platform as decidedly unpresidential. He’s receiving only gratitude, however, from Republican candidates he’s endorsed on Twitter – candidates who’ve ridden Trump’s endorsement to decisive primary victories.

With over 50 million followers on Twitter, the president’s outreach spans a far greater cross-section of voters than the standard political database — though not all of his followers are Republicans or even politically engaged. He has endorsed 44 campaigns so far and many say they’ve seen a tangible difference after a getting that seal of approval on Twitter. His input elevates the candidates’ national profile, increases donations, and can even help change the outcome of some races.

In last month’s Republican gubernatorial primary runoff in Georgia, Trump’s surprise endorsement may have been the key to tipping the tight contest in the favor of Secretary of State Brian Kemp. He entered the July runoff as the underdog and ended up winning by a double-digit margin.

“The president’s endorsement was like pouring gasoline on a fire,” Kemp told RCP. Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle had been widely considered the favorite throughout the race and had the support of Georgia’s GOP establishment, including term-limited Gov. Nathan Deal. Cagle won the first round of voting in May by 13 points but did not top 50 percent, forcing the runoff; he ended up losing to Kemp in July in a landslide after the president weighed in.

Trump pointed to Kemp’s record on immigration and crime as the reason for his endorsement. “Brian Kemp is running for Governor of the great state of Georgia. The Primary is on Tuesday. Brian is tough on crime, strong on the border and illegal immigration. He loves our Military and our Vets and protects our Second Amendment. I give him my full and total endorsement,” Trump tweeted on July 18 — less than a week before the runoff. Kemp’s campaign said there was an immediate increase in the candidate’s social media and website traffic after the announcement. Vice President Mike Pence’s rally for Kemp — which took place after the endorsement — attracted some 2,000 people.

But more was going on in Georgia than Trump’s tweets or Pence’s stump speeches. Just two weeks before the runoff, Cagle was recorded by a former opponent making disparaging comments about voters – he sneered that they didn’t care about the issues but rather about “who had the biggest gun, who had the biggest truck, and who could be the craziest.”

Nonetheless, it seems clear that a Trump endorsement can change the dynamic of some midterm races. Another competitive primary contest in Michigan turned in favor of the president’s preferred candidate after he gained Trump’s backing. At the start of the summer, U.S. Senate candidate John James (pictured) trailed Sandy Pensler. But James began making headway around mid-July when the president endorsed him. The only poll taken entirely after the endorsement shows a seven-point jump for James from the previous poll, according to RCP’s collective polling on the race. He won the Aug. 7 primary by nearly 10 percentage points.

Various campaigns on the House, Senate and gubernatorial levels report a noticeable uptick in social media engagement and online activity after a tweet from the president. A mere 280-character post has the power to boost name recognition for lesser-known candidates and focus media attention on races that hadn’t received much notice. Often, the campaigns report, it leads to immediate increases in online contributions.

Rep. Matt Gaetz’s campaign in Florida saw a sizable jump in website traffic after Trump tweeted about him in July. Campaign spokesman Peter Holland said there was a 48 percent increase in website visits in the month following the endorsement as well as a 10 percent bump in daily Facebook engagement. Most importantly, Holland said, the campaign saw a 25 percent increase in individual donations online.

The campaign of Republican Pete Stauber, running in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, said the president’s interest in the race generated national attention and a massive boost in name identification for the little-known county commissioner.

“After the first time the president tweeted about us, our Twitter numbers nearly doubled,” said Caroline Tarwid, press secretary for the campaign. The race is considered one of the top flip opportunities for Republicans after Rep. Rick Nolan, a Democrat, decided to retire. The district went for Trump overwhelmingly in the 2016 election. Both Trump and Pence traveled to the district to campaign and fundraise for Stauber, who coasted to victory Tuesday and will face Joe Radinovich in November.

While candidates say Twitter endorsements are helpful, a tweet coupled with a rally remains the coveted combination. The two together attract the most attention across platforms and help turn enthusiasm into tangible results. A spokesman for Rep. Lou Barletta’s Senate campaign said that a recent rally in Pennsylvania did wonders for donations.  “In the 24 hours following the president’s rally for Lou in Wilkes-Barre, the campaign saw over $50,000 in unsolicited, online, small-dollar donations,” said Matt Beynon. “This is above the fundraising reception the president took part in and other email solicitations that were made surrounding the event.”

Although the Republican National Committee stays out of primary races, the president has shown he has no such compunction. RNC officials are well aware of his ability to jump-start local GOP campaigns, and say they are working with Trump’s own re-election team on finding  the best way to harness the president’s ability to  turn his online followers into rally participants who then go to the polls. “No one can turn out our voters like President Trump, but it only works if he is in the right place and in front of the right people,” said Chris Carr, political director for Trump’s re-election campaign. “You need really good data to figure that out, and the RNC data is the best in the business.”

When primary races wrap up next month, the dynamic will likely change, as futile presidential endorsements in Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections demonstrated. But for now, Trump’s tweeted support remains highly valued, and highly sought-after.

Sally Persons is RealClearPolitics’ White House correspondent.