The New New Normal? Jobless claims hit a record low, while stocks surge to a new high.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-new-normal-1537484921
The economy is doing so well these days that even Barack Obama recently emerged 20 months after he left office to claim credit. Perhaps he’ll give another speech after Thursday brought more news that the days of economic malaise are over.
On Thursday morning the Labor Department announced that the number of Americans who filed new unemployment claims last week hit a new low for the current expansion. The seasonally adjusted figure, 201,000, was down 3,000—the lowest since November 1969. Part of the dip could be due to fewer claims in areas affected by Hurricane Florence. But the drop was even steeper in a few states like Illinois, and anyway the four-week average is at a record low too.
Then on Thursday afternoon the stock market, shrugging off President Trump’s latest tariffs, surged to a new high. At market close the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1%, enough to beat its January record. Other indexes followed suit. Mr. Trump, responding to the news on Twitter, seemed to break his caps-lock key: “S&P 500 HITS ALL-TIME HIGH Congratulations USA!” If workers are checking their retirement accounts for the first time in a couple months, they’re probably happy too.
All the usual caveats apply: The data on weekly jobless claims can be noisy, the economy is bigger than the stock market, and nobody on Planet Earth knows what the Dow will do tomorrow. Mr. Trump’s trade fight with China continues to escalate, with no clear resolution in sight.
No doubt most of our readers recall when the sluggish economy of the Obama years was said to be a “new normal.” Economic sentiment began to shift on Election Day in 2016, and economic policy shifted dramatically toward growth over the last 20 months. Coincidence?
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