Has the Russian Military Boxed in Putin? Signs point to a renegade Russian military in Syria. Shoshana Bryen and Stephen Bryen
Russia saved the Syrian regime from collapse by bringing in air power and encouraging the Iranians and their allies the Lebanese Hezbollah to provide renewed muscle for ground fighting. Russia brought in its top aircraft including the Su-35, protected its main base Khmeimim with the formidable S-400 Triumf missile defense system and worked out a deal with Israel. Iran contributed large numbers of Shiite mercenaries, including Jihadi fighters, Pakistani and Afghan men and children, led by Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers.
An Israel-Russia deal instituted a deconfliction system so Israel could maintain certain red lines in Syria without encountering Russian fighter aircraft or missiles launched from Khmeimim. The deal was recently upgraded to keep Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah forces away from the border with Israel.
Israel’s Interests
One Israeli red line is the acquisition by Hezbollah of sophisticated missiles. Iranians transports missiles to Hezbollah through Syria because the military part of the Damascus airport is heavily defended unlike Beirut (the alternative option) and because the airbase is better protected against commando operations.
Israel has focused on staging areas and warehouses, many of them clearly under the control of the Syrian military. To keep Israel away, some of the warehouse roofs have been painted with UN symbols or with DHL logos. This backfired, however, as it makes it easier to Israel to find its targets.
Israel is looking for missiles manufactured primarily by Iran, but also those from China, North Korea or re-transferred to Syria but made in Russia. Some are based on Russian designs and others on Chinese rockets such as the WS-1 Weishi (Guardian). While most are unguided, they threaten Israeli communities, especially in the north, and including large cities such as Haifa, which has already suffered missile attacks from Hezbollah.
Russia has not interceded
Other Israeli operations appear to have targeted Iranian troops – including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers. Some have been killed. Last July, Israel allegedly destroyed an Iranian Revolutionary Guard center near Aleppo. In January 2015, Israel hit a convoy, killing six Hezbollah soldiers and Mohammad Ali Allahdadi, a Brigadier General in the Quds Force of the IRGC. The Quds Force is an elite commando force of the Revolutionary Guards that reports directly to Ayatollah Khamenei. Its commander is Major General Qasem Soleimani.
The same strike killed Jihad Mughniyah, an important Hezbollah leader.
A possibly realistic option for Israel is to surround Iran’s military forces including proxies and force Hezbollah to fight with them. In this way both forces could potentially be defeated, even liquidated. Israel has been carrying out extensive military training planning and has been carrying out military drills that include even a war scenario where Russia is directly involved.
The Americans have now been added to the mix.
Last August, National Security Advisor John Bolton said Putin would like to see the Iranians leave Syria but lacks the influence to get rid of them (whether true or not, it is a signal from Putin). Putin has sent other signals about his concern about the Iranians, because Iran could very well threaten Russia’s interest in Syria or force Russia into a war it does not want or need. Just this week Bolton laid down an American red line, announcing that the U.S. would remain in Syria as long as there were Iranian troops and their proxies there.
The Brewing War
This is the war that is brewing in Syria – mostly engaging Israel and Iran. The Russian response to losing its Il-20M aircraft to Syrian fire appears to bring that war closer instead of postponing it, and risks Russia’s ability to remain in Syria altogether
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to telephone the Russian President about the incident. Shortly after, Putin made it clear that the shoot down was “a chain of tragic accidental circumstances,” and not Israel’s fault. He also directed his military to keep the deconfliction mechanism in place, even though Russia’s Air Force wanted it cancelled.
But a day after an Israeli delegation in Moscow provided a detailed account of its mission in Syria on the day of the shoot down, the Russian military appears to have taken unilateral steps to narrow the deconfliction zone agreement. This is disputed, but the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, did announce Russia was moving its S-300 air defense system to Syria. Shoigu noted that Russia had suspended the delivery of the S-300 system in 2013 “at the request of Israel.” He said Syrian gunners were already trained and the S-300 would soon arrive in Damascus. The Minister made clear this was retaliation.
Most important, Shoigu added that Russia would henceforth “jam satellite navigation, onboard radars and communication systems of combat aircraft, which attack targets in the Syrian territory, in the regions over the waters of the Mediterranean Sea bordering with Syria.” Jamming communications would automatically shut down the ability to use the deconfliction system and avert emergencies.
The S-300
Israel probably has tactics to deal with the S-300. The Pentagon confirmed that Iran had tested and deployed the S-300 which was delivered in 2016 and took two years to become operational. Israel and the U.S. believe these missiles have jumped up Iranian air defenses at least a full generation.
A similar system in Syria may take time to become operational, despite training back in 2013 of Syrian operators – unless of course the Syrians bring in Iranians to do it for them. This would be a game changer and could be enough to trigger a broader war.
This puts the Russians in a much more dangerous position. Instead of Syrian missiles being only an incidental target when they engage Israeli aircraft, the S-300 could potentially become a regular target of the Israel Air Force. This is bad news for Putin who wants to stabilize Syria, retain his bases there and avoid more war. Putin’s strategic objective would seem to be to work a deal, principally with the United States but with Israel’s agreement, that would recognize Russia’s long-term interest in Syria as “guardian” of whatever future Syrian government is agreed. Iran is a big sticking point and the S-300 is likely to make matters much worse.
So is the Russian military.
Putin in the Middle
Putin, to stay in power, has to maneuver carefully between threats on two sides – by his intelligence cronies who are seeking power, and by the Russian military, which he has been feeding as best he can with new weapons. Announcing the S-300 for Syria looks like a calculated plan by the military to force Putin into something that risks Russia’s role in Syria and possibly sets up a military confrontation not only with Israel but also with the United States.
It is unclear why the Russian military would want such a confrontation: its response so far looks mostly visceral, smarting from the destruction of the Il-20M and their long-known xenophobia and, most importantly of all their drive to be considered a top power just like the United States. Putin shares these concerns, but he also has to worry about the impact of precipitous military decisions on the whole Russian state.
To have any hope of delivering an end to the war in Syria that preserves Russian bases and influence, Putin has to keep the Iranians away from the S-300 in Syria, or better yet, delay the delivery into the unforeseeable future. He has to stare down his own renegade military.
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