Germany’s Coalition of the Dwindling Realignment is reshaping politics even in staid Berlin.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-coalition-of-the-dwindling-11559594595
Germans are said to love political stability, but apparently not too much. After delivering shock results in recent elections for the European Parliament and a state government in Bremen, Germans can now watch traditional parties decline before their eyes.
The crisis is most acute for the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), whose leader Andrea Nahles resigned Sunday. The SPD suffered a drubbing in the European vote last month, placing third with 16% compared to 2014’s close second-place finish of 27%. On the same day the party also lost control in Bremen for the first time since the war.
It’s the latest sign of the center-left identity crisis that’s set in during repeated stints in a left-right governing coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats (the CDU and Bavarian CSU). Those coalitions prevent the SPD from acting as a true opposition party, leaving that task to others. The winners have been the Greens who increasingly capture urban, more prosperous former SPD voters, and the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) that appeals to parts of the SPD’s former blue-collar base.
Ms. Nahles is taking the fall for these poor showings, although it isn’t clear who could do better. The party is split on issues ranging from migration to labor reform. Many grass-roots members are still uneasy about the decision to form another “GroKo” (German shorthand for a grand coalition) after the party performed poorly in the 2017 national election. Yet those vying to replace her, such as Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, are conspicuously quiet about what they’d do differently on policy or politics.
Mrs. Merkel’s party also performed poorly in the European election, losing 7.5 points compared to its 2014 result to limp into first with 22.6% of the vote. An opinion poll over the weekend for the first time found the Greens more popular than the CDU/CSU, 27%-26%. A 10-point surge in the European vote compared to 2014 pushed the Greens into a strong second. The Greens are wooing conservative voters with promises to end the cronyism exposed by the dieselgate scandal in the auto industry.
So much for stability. Ms. Nahles’s departure could prompt the SPD to abandon the GroKo and force Mrs. Merkel to form some other coalition (perhaps with the Greens and the free-market Free Democrats) or call a snap election. Party elders worry a new election would alienate German voters who allegedly prize “stability,” but those voters may have left Berlin with few alternatives. This ruckus could cloud Mrs. Merkel’s succession plan in her own party, perhaps triggering a rethink of her preferred replacement Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who hasn’t made a mark on voters.
Germany’s coalition of the dwindling exposes a bigger truth about the political winds buffeting Europe. The disruption is about more than Brexit, the Italian budget or even the euro. Germany’s old parties are struggling as European politics realigns around new issues and forms new coalitions. No country is immune.
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