Mike Pompeo’s Predicament The Syria withdrawal worried allies, divided the GOP, and made his job a lot harder. By Walter Russell Mead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mike-pompeos-predicament-11571093624
Foreign leaders have found much to dislike in President Trump’s policy—the aggressive stance on trade, the chaotic policy process, the disregard for convention and past agreements. Yet they’ve seemed willing to work with the administration anyway. However much it pained them, they appeared to believe that Mr. Trump had a strong enough political coalition behind his foreign-policy program that, on the whole, it was better to deal pragmatically with the administration than to try to wait out his presidency.
That changed last week. The sudden decision to break with the Syrian Kurds, the shambolic execution of the decision, and the administration’s evident inability to manage the easily foreseeable political consequences in the Republican Senate crystallized a perception that the White House is in over its head. Unless that changes, foreign powers will increasingly act on the belief that the American executive is both politically weak and intellectually unfocused. The consequences for political stability and economic prosperity around the world are not good.
Mr. Trump’s trade diplomacy is particularly at risk. China is much less likely to make significant compromises if it thinks the president is a lame duck. As the Europeans shift from dealing with Mr. Trump through gritted teeth to waiting for his administration to end, the European Union will likely stiffen its trade stance as well.
The geopolitical consequences of a weakened Trump administration will also be significant. Revisionist powers large and small are more likely to take risks and challenge American power when they believe the U.S. is distracted and divided. Russia’s attack on Georgia came in the summer of 2008 when George W. Bush was an unpopular lame duck and the building financial crisis was beginning to distract Americans from international news.
Russia, far from seeking any kind of special relationship with Mr. Trump, is likely to revel in his weakness. In the western Balkans, in Syria, and in hot spots like Venezuela, Russia must be expected to move more aggressively.
A belief that the Trump administration has divided political support will encourage hard-liners in Iran to press their regional advantage, leading to crises that could force Israel and its new Arab allies into risky moves of their own. Israelis are wondering how far they can count on the Trump administration even as they recalculate the odds that Democrats will control both Congress and the White House after the 2020 elections.
The Taliban is unlikely to make significant concessions at the negotiating table in the face of perceived American weakness. China will see a sustained period of internal division in America as an excellent opportunity to intensify its effort at strengthening its regional position and creating of a rival sphere of influence in the Asia-Pacific.
The greatest damage will likely be to U.S. relationships with allies that were already nervous—either because of the pattern of American withdrawal under President Obama or erratic decision making under Mr. Trump. As they watch the Democratic Party shift left and the Clinton-Biden wing of the party lose ground in the primary campaign, U.S. allies are likely to conclude that America’s turn inward will continue past 2020.
From South Korea and Japan to Australia, India, Israel, Germany, France and the U.K., policy makers and public opinion will perceive the U.S. as a less reliable, less engaged partner. They will, inevitably, think about how they can ensure their security and their other interests without America. Their interest in aligning their policies with America’s will diminish; it will only become harder for Mr. Trump and his successors to reach agreements with allies that benefit the U.S.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo now faces the most critical challenge of his career. Leading a divided State Department in a divided country, America’s chief interlocutor with foreign governments must work to restore a sense of competence, continuity and calm. That won’t be easy. Mr. Pompeo has made loyalty to the president the foundation of his tenure—something that is necessary for anyone in that job, and especially vital in the Age of Trump. Without losing Mr. Trump’s confidence, Mr. Pompeo must also speak up for America’s permanent interests as most Americans, regardless of party, still understand them.
The only man in Washington under more pressure than Mr. Pompeo is Mr. Trump. This president is a unique historical figure whose unconventional approach to politics has reshaped American political life. But at the moment Mr. Trump has lost control of the international agenda and faces some of the greatest risks of his presidency. His survival in office and his place in history both depend on putting American foreign policy on a more solid footing, and the clock is against him. The coming episodes of “The Trump Show” look to be the most compelling, and the most consequential, yet.
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