Israel’s Conservative Consensus Netanyahu beats expectations in the country’s third election.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/israels-conservative-consensus-11583281438?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
A nationalist leader runs against liberal elites and a rigged system. He’s opposed by most of the security establishment, called a threat to democracy, and bombarded with legal investigations and prosecutions. Yet the efforts to use the legal system to oust him fail and even cause his support with voters to tick upward.
That could apply to President Trump, but it also reflects the political saga of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who on Monday outperformed expectations at the ballot box even as his corruption trial looms. Sixty-one seats in the Knesset are required for a majority government, and Mr. Netanyahu’s center-right coalition is expected to secure 58 to the opposition’s 55 in the latest Haaretz tally.
That’s a notable improvement on the 55 seats Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition won last time, but it may not be enough to break the political stalemate that has led to three Israeli elections in a year. If the numbers hold, the Prime Minister still must coax at least three parliamentarians from opposing parties to his side.
Mr. Netanyahu’s comfortable majority fell apart last May when a secular nationalist party headed by Avigdor Lieberman broke with Mr. Netanyahu over his accommodation of military exemptions for Haredi Jews. The second election in September saw Mr. Netanyahu’s bloc shrink, but the opposing Blue and White coalition also couldn’t form a government.
Mr. Netanyahu is in a stronger position after his showing in the third election and few Israelis have the appetite for a fourth. Yet Mr. Lieberman, who will likely control seven seats, has not been hurt politically by holding out and may not feel pressure to rejoin the center-right bloc.
Meanwhile, Mr. Netanyahu’s trial is scheduled to begin March 17 and his opponents may want to delay the formation of a new government in hopes the proceedings damage him. The Prime Minister would only need to step down if he is convicted, and even that would be complicated by appeals.
One notable outcome is that the Arab Joint List appears to have won 16 seats—its most ever. This follows the increasing prominence of Arab parties in coalition negotiations after the September election. Contrary to Israel’s antagonists on the left, the country’s ethnic minority is helping to shape political outcomes.
That brings us to Bernie Sanders and his recent claim that Mr. Netanyahu is a “reactionary racist.” Israelis follow American politics, and we wouldn’t be surprised if the prospect of an anti-Israel President made some voters less likely to abandon the tried and tested Mr. Netanyahu.
The bottom line is that there is a consensus in Israeli society around strong security policies. Mr. Lieberman is if anything to Mr. Netanyahu’s right, the Labor left has been reduced to a rump, and even a centrist coalition backed by military leaders can’t oust Mr. Netanyahu. Israelis aren’t the bigots of Mr. Sanders’s smear, but they have learned hard lessons from decades of terrorism and an unstable Middle East.
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