Showdown in the Mediterranean Two NATO allies could go to war over a maritime dispute.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/showdown-in-the-mediterranean-11599780440?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
Aegean Sea surface temperatures naturally can reach the 80s, but the region has come to a boil this summer. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s confrontation with Greece over maritime claims could be resolved through diplomacy. The question is whether Mr. Erdogan wants to negotiate or simply assert Turkish power.
Territorial disputes around the Turkish coast and several nearby Greek islands existed long before Mr. Erdogan took office, but the Turkish leader’s growing belligerence has caused the latest round of tension. He unilaterally claims vast chunks of territory for Turkey and has escalated by sending exploration vessels into disputed territory with support from the navy. Each side has legitimate claims but Ankara justifies bad behavior with nationalist rhetoric.
“They’re either going to understand the language of politics and diplomacy, or in the field with painful experiences,” Mr. Erdogan declared Saturday. While leaders usually reserve such language for adversaries, Mr. Erdogan was threatening a NATO ally. The alliance hoped relations between Greece and Turkey would improve when they joined in 1952, but the two have come close to war three times since the 1970s. Tensions worsened as gas was discovered around the Eastern Mediterranean in recent years.
Turkey also has issues with Cyprus, which belongs to the European Union but not NATO. Ankara invaded the island in 1974 and is the only country in the world to recognize Turkish-speaking Northern Cyprus as a state. The south wants to cut deals with foreign energy firms but Ankara demands the north gets a share. Separately, Turkey wants economic rights in waters Cyprus sees as its own.
Military conflict between Greece and Turkey remains an unlikely but real possibility. NATO has tried to arrange talks but Greece says it won’t participate until Turkey withdraws its naval ships from disputed areas. These difficulties prompted the weekend tantrum from Mr. Erdogan, who sees the fight as about more than uncertain energy reserves.
Mr. Erdogan’s popularity has fallen amid Turkey’s economic and financial troubles. But a tough stance in the Eastern Mediterranean generates support across the Turkish political spectrum. Ankara has invested heavily in its naval ambitions, with a light aircraft carrier set to sail next year and more frigates on the way. Greece has announced more defense spending, but it will take years to have an effect.
In the past the U.S. and Europe have worked together to manage tensions in the region. This time Washington has called for dialogue but deferred to the European Union. Brussels remains divided—with France symbolically escalating against Turkey and Germany trying to play fair broker—and its efforts won’t mean much without America’s economic and military heft.
Under Mr. Erdogan, Turkey has benefited from its ties to the West while moving closer to Russia. Turkey is a strategically important NATO member, particularly in the Black Sea, and the relationship is worth trying to save. But intimidating another ally like this deserves an answer. If Mr. Erdogan uses force or threatens to cut refugees loose on Europe, Washington and Brussels will need a united response.
President Trump’s tweets and transactional approach to foreign affairs get all the media attention. But NATO as the world knows it could unravel in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Comments are closed.
