House midterms: Past the point of no return by Byron York,
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/house-midterms-past-the-point-of-no-return
The midterm elections are now two weeks away. Some political commentators have an interest in portraying them as one big, suspenseful, down-to-the-wire contest. Maybe some of those commentators are partisan. Maybe some just think it’s good for business. But the fact is, at this point, the midterm results, as far as the House of Representatives is concerned, are pretty much set in stone. Republicans are going to win. Democrats are going to lose. The Senate is moving in that direction, too. It might already be there.
“What’s about to happen is very obvious,” said one Republican deeply involved in midterm races. “Voters think the economy sucks. Voters think Joe Biden sucks. Therefore, voters think Democrats suck. End of discussion.”
Most people wouldn’t put it quite so bluntly. Or maybe they would. In any event, here is a quick, step-by-step synopsis of how things came to this point over the last 18 months:
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1) One party, the Democratic Party, controls the House, the Senate, and the White House.
2) The party’s margins of control in both the House and the Senate are so thin that even a narrow midterm loss would result in loss of the majority.
3) The opposition party has always been in a strong position to win because unpopular presidents like Biden, with an approval rating of 42.6% in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, always lose seats in the midterm elections.
4) Economic events, especially inflation, have unfolded in a way that favors the opposition party.
5) There was a brief period, after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, when Democrats believed anger over the decision would overshadow the economy and fuel a Democratic victory.
6) That brief period ended, the law of political gravity reasserted itself, and the economy remains by far the most important issue in the race — which, of course, favors the opposition party.
So here we are. Look at the Cook Political Report assessment of the House. It rates 162 seats as “Solid Democrat” and 188 seats as “Solid Republican.” So Republicans have an advantage there. Then, in the “Likely Democrat” category, a low but not nonexistent level of risk, there are 14 Democratic seats. In the “Likely Republican” category, there are seven Republican seats, but there are also four Democratic seats listed as “Likely Republican,” meaning those four seats are probably goners for the Democrats.
Then there is the “Lean Democrat” category, indicating a somewhat higher level of risk. There are 14 Democratic seats in that category and two Republican seats. In the “Lean Republican” category, there are five Democratic seats and seven Republican seats. Finally, in the “Toss Up” category, the highest level of risk, there are 22 Democratic seats and 10 Republican seats.
The bottom line is that Republicans start with a stronger core and then have fewer seats in at-risk categories than Democrats. In the Cook Political Report’s reckoning, there are 50 Democratic seats in some level of danger, while there are 24 Republican seats in some level of danger. Most telling are the toss-ups — 22 Democrats and 10 Republicans. And remember that Republicans need to pick up just five seats to take control of the House.
As for the Senate, the trends are also moving in a Republican direction. Think about it — could there be that many currently Democratic congressional districts now moving toward Republicans without having some effect in statewide Senate races? The GOP needs to pick up just one — one — seat to take control of the Senate. They have good opportunities to do so in Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. If they win just one of those, without losing any of the seats they currently hold, they assume control. If they win two while losing one of the seats they currently hold, Pennsylvania being the most at risk, they also assume control.
There could always be some enormous, out-of-the-blue, world-changing event between now and Election Day. Like 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, it would be bad news for everybody. But barring that, the midterm cake is baked. “The president has bad numbers,” the GOP strategist said. “The issue set is made up of Republican-advantage issues. What’s coming in two weeks is obvious.”
For a brief moment, I was going to headline this newsletter: “Is there time for one more swing before the midterms?” Just a few days ago, Biden spoke hopefully of there being enough time for another shift in the race, this final time toward the Democrats. “Here’s what I think,” the president said. “It’s been back and forth with them ahead, us ahead, them ahead. Back and forth. And the polls have been all over the place. I think that we’re going to see one more shift back to our side in the closing days.”
No doubt many Democrats want to believe that. But it’s too late.
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