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That move will face powerful diplomatic pushback, certainly from Egypt and probably from the United States. Their opposition is focused on maintaining a 100-meter-wide “demilitarized zone” just inside the Gaza border with Egypt.

The Gaza-Egypt Border, called the Philadelphi Corridor 

That zone, known as the “Philadelphi Corridor,” was established in the 1979 Egypt-Israeli treaty.

In Article III:2, Egypt promised to prevent “acts or threats of belligerency, hostility, or violence” in that zone. It tried to do so in 2013-14, shortly after the Muslim Brotherhood was ousted by the Egyptian military. The new regime degraded the tunnels beneath the border and tightened the checkpoints above ground. Since then, however, Egypt has done very little, falling well short of blocking the transit of terrorists, their war materials, and foreign advisers.

The Security Problem for Israel: The Border is Porous

Israel officials are well aware of the problem and united in their belief that the porous Philadelphi Corridor poses a lethal threat. That’s how Hamas receives much of its small arms, missiles, ammunition, money, materials to build still more tunnels and missiles, as well as foreign military advisers and trainers. Most come from Iran. Egypt has failed to stop what Daniel Pipes calls “massive smuggling of armaments to Gaza via tunnels.”

As the supplies, money, and personnel have flowed in, the Egyptian government has largely averted its eyes. They are not alone. The United States, the rich countries that fund Gaza, and the UN agencies that operate there have all done the same.

El-Sisi’s Goal: Preserve His Regime, Not Support Hamas

Cairo’s failure to act is not because it supports Hamas. It doesn’t, though it cannot say so publicly. Rather, its goal is to avoid conflicts with the terrorist organization’s supporters in Egypt. Corruption of border guards and other officials plays a supporting role in keeping the border open. Of course, the Egyptian government denies everything, rejecting all claims of arms smuggling as “lies.”

Israel’s Goal: Close the Border to Arms Smuggling
Otherwise, Hamas can rearm and maintain its political control

The smuggling isn’t a lie. The border is open, and Israel is determined to close it after the terror attacks of October 7. Unless the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) can plug the tunnels and prevent new ones from being built, Hamas can rearm.

The new weapons would not only guarantee more deadly attacks on Israeli civilians, they would give Hamas leverage to block other groups from governing Gaza. Neither outcome is acceptable to any government in Jerusalem. Not just Netanyahu, any government.

As Netanyahu and his War Cabinet debate their final decision, they not only face opposition from Egypt but, increasingly, from a skittish Biden Administration. Whatever the White House says, Israel is still likely to act. Bilateral relations will deteriorate as a result, but they are unlikely to break. The partnership is too important for both sides. European states and Britain will raise even more strenuous objections. Israel will ignore them. Russia will act opportunistically to solidify its ties with Iran and gain diplomatic traction across the Muslim world. So will China.

Egypt Cares about the Philadelphi Crossing for 2 Reasons

• Its Reputation for Sovereign Control of its Borders
• Hamas Connection to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood

Egypt’s position here is crucial. The el-Sisi regime is utterly, vocally opposed to Israeli military action along the border. Their reason is simple: failing to oppose Israel could threaten the regime’s stability.

That threat stems from Hamas intimate connection with its Egyptian counterpart. The terrorist organization in Gaza is an offshoot of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, which held power after it ousted Hosni Mubarak’s military regime in 2011. The Brotherhood, in turn, was ousted by a military coup two years later. The leader was General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who heads the country today.

While the 2013 coup removed the Muslim Brotherhood from power, it did not eliminate them as a political force. Although their power has ebbed, they remain a rival to the military regime and a threat to its continued rule. And the Brotherhood is closely tied to its progeny in Gaza.

The umbilical cord between the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas poses a problem for el-Sisi.

The fate of Hamas matters far less to el-Sisi and his colleagues than remaining in power. That’s what really matters to any regime. In this case, the best way to remain in power is to visibly oppose Israeli military action along the Egyptian border and make sure the Muslim Brotherhood understands just how strong that opposition is.

That opposition won’t stop Israel, but it will raise the cost, deepening the cleavage with Egypt just as Israel’s relations with Washington are worsening. The Biden Administration fears a wider regional war, mostly for strategic reasons. But Biden and his party have domestic concerns as well. They are already losing support in Michigan, a swing state where Muslims form a significant voting bloc. They are joined by pro-Palestinian progressives across the country, who accuse Biden of “genocide.”

International Opposition is Unlikely to Stop Israel

This opposition is unlikely to outweigh Jerusalem’s overriding concern with its national security. As Benjamin Netanyahu put it several weeks ago, “The Philadelphi Corridor . . . must be in our hands. It must be shut. It is clear that any other arrangement would not ensure the demilitarization that we seek.”