“First Out, Next In” Sydney Williams
http://www.swtotd.bolgspot.com
Edward Bellamy’s 1888 utopian novel Looking Backward showed the difficulty of getting the future right, especially when idealism co-opts reason. National socialism proved a disaster to Germany and Italy (and the world), and state ownership of industry deep-sixed the Soviet Union. Kierkegaard suggested in the rubric above, life is best lived with an understanding of history. And as George Santayana famously wrote in Life of Reason: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
Divisiveness characterizes our age, like the years leading to the Civil War, the McCarthy era of the early 1950s, or the late 1960s when the Country was divided by the Vietnam War. In last Friday’s The Wall Street Journal Lance Morrow of the Ethics and Public Policy Center wrote: “Exaggeration is the traditional style of American politics, but permanent culture wars, the global pandemic, the agitations of social media and the collapse of party discipline – and, not least, the role modeling of Joe Biden and Donald Trump – have left Americans discontent with mere exaggeration.” We have, he added, “gotten addicted to apocalypse…”
Is there a way out? Can reason subsume emotion? Is a middle ground achievable? I think there is, but I don’t believe that either Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump will lead the way. The former is in cognizant decline and the latter has become detached from reality. There are big issues that separate the two parties, but democracy is about debate and compromise, not incoherent brawling, which is what our politics have become.
The title of this essay stems from my belief that the first of the two main contenders to drop out of the race for President (as unlikely as that now seems) will assure that his Party wins November’s Presidential election. At this point there is no sign that such a possibility is being considered. Neither candidate is widely admired, let alone respected, yet both appear likely to secure their Party’s nomination. In a head-to-head race, polls have them pretty much divided. As for losers, if either were to win, that would be the American public. The likelihood of a Biden-Trump rematch makes this an intractable problem for a majority of voters, as forever Trumpers battle imperious Progressives.
As an amateur observer of the political scene, it seems to me that the first to drop out would likely be Mr. Biden. His lack of mental acuity becomes more visible every day, and Democrats are the more disciplined of the two Parties. Their leaders, no matter what they now say, know that Mr. Biden’s health will continue to deteriorate and that Vice President Kamala Harris is not a viable candidate to lead the world’s most powerful nation. Mainstream media, which serves as their propaganda arm, is beginning to suggest a change would be in the Party’s best interest. On the Republican side, M.A.G.A. Republicans remain vehement defenders of a man they feel has been treated badly. But the conservative media is mixed. While Fox News and Epoch Times are all-in in their support for Mr. Trump, The Wall Street Journal takes a more muted approach, as do The New York Sun, National Review and The Spectator. And we have both the Biden and Trump nominations being supported by mainstream media. Biden’s support stems from his identity politics and his preference for Washington’s Woke bureaucracy. In contrast, mainstream media would prefer the “deplorable,” but nationally unelectable, Mr. Trump over the electable Nikki Haley.
Will either man drop out of the race? I suspect not willingly. But control of the White House reaps enormous benefits – the coattail effect of elections, control over the political direction of the country and the world, and the direct appointment of thousands of jobs. Democrats, as mentioned above, are more methodical, more controlling than Republicans; they appeal to the group, not the individual. While they have extremists, like the “Squad,” the entire Party has moved left since the Obama Presidency. On the other hand, Republicans have always been a Party of individuals, of oners, where the group is less important than the person. However, “Forever Trumpers” have changed the calculus. Their backing of Trump is less about policies and more about anger as to how he and they have been belittled. To borrow an Obama line, they believe that having Trump in their corner is like bringing a gun to a knife fight. As Hoover Institute senior fellow John H. Cochrane wrote in Saturday’s The Wall Street Journal: “…there is no better way to stick it to the elites than to vote for the man who drives them most crazy.”
For a conservative like me, these are sad days. This should be a Republican cycle given Mr. Biden’s low polling numbers, our moral decay, and our decline in the eyes of the world. Consider: the Country faces an out-of-control immigration crisis; a war in the Middle East that is spreading; a Russia intent on reclaiming its past empire; a China insistent on controlling the South China Sea and its trade routes; an Iran on the cusp of becoming a nuclear power; overwhelming debt and deficits; the lingering effects of inflation; and a focus on identity that has worsened race relations. There is no question of the fervor of Mr. Trump’s followers, but, as we saw in 2018, 2020, and 2020, he has no coattails. Control of the White House without control of Congress means we tread water. Difficult problems do not get resolved.
Predicting the future is a fool’s game, yet as the Danish philosopher Soren Kierkegaard wrote life must be lived forward. So, using the past as guide we make predictions. As I wrote earlier, I believe there is a chance Mr. Biden will be persuaded to give up his quest. But for Mr. Trump to do likewise is unlikely. If Republicans want a dog fight, they should go with Mr. Trump. But the best shot for Republicans to keep the House, take back the Senate and the White House is to support Nikki Haley in the upcoming primaries. She is Republicans’ best hope for victory, and for America to take back our values, families, schools, and cities.
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