The Coming Era of MAGA Dominance Trump’s 2024 win, driven by a coalition of White and male voters with gains among Hispanics, Catholics, and union members, suggests a new era of Republican dominance amid shifting demographics. By Eric Lendrum
https://amgreatness.com/2024/11/15/the-coming-era-of-maga-dominance/
Only Donald Trump could have pulled off the kind of victory we witnessed just over one week ago. The victory achieved by, and for, the man himself is already the greatest political comeback in American history.
But it is entirely possible that his win now could set up an equally unprecedented comeback, but not for any one particular individual. If the Republican Party plays its cards right this time, it could build off of the massive coalition that President Trump has built for himself and ride this wave of momentum to a new era of dominance in American politics.
The Old Map and the New Map
Just as importantly as 2016, the 2024 election perfectly displays the best path forward for the new Republican Party when it comes to establishing and maintaining an electoral majority every four years.
Prior to the entrance of Donald Trump onto the political stage, the GOP’s best hope for victory was to win virtually all of the states that were once considered “swing states” just two decades ago. This is best represented by the 2004 map when George W. Bush narrowly defeated John Kerry.
Bush managed to win the then-swing states of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. The only swing state Bush lost that year was New Hampshire, even though he had won it four years prior against Al Gore. Kerry won the three Rust Belt states that have become much more important in recent years.
After winning eight of the nine swing states, Bush wound up with a mere 286 electoral votes to Kerry’s 251.
By contrast, even though President Trump lost five of the nine swing states from the 2004 map, his victories in the three Rust Belt states were enough to net him a total of 306 electoral votes, substantially higher than Bush’s best performance. He then beat his own record with his historic comeback victory eight years later, with 312 electoral votes and picking up one more of Bush’s swing states. By trading out the smaller states of New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire for the more heavily populated Rust Belt, President Trump made Republican victories at the national level much easier than they were under Bush.
And it’s not just the feat of flipping the Rust Belt, but also the incredible achievement of solidifying several swing states as newly minted Republican strongholds. Whereas Ohio, Iowa, and Florida were long seen as the quintessential swing states dating as far back as 1960, President Trump has turned them into ruby-red states; he won Ohio by 11 points and Iowa and Florida by 13 points.
Moreover, President Trump exceeded the 270 threshold by a sizable amount due to his dominance in all seven swing states. He did not need all of these states to win: Simply flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania, for example, would have put him at exactly 270. Flipping Georgia, Arizona, and any one of the other Rust Belt states would have also put him over the top. Under his leadership, the GOP is now the party with more paths to 270 and thus has greater chances of victory in the future.
It was never about the swing states of 2004. The answer has always been the Rust Belt, and turning the “blue wall” into the “red wall.”
The Return of the Old Coalition
However, understanding this victory can only come when we take away the correct conclusions when it comes to the exact demographics that made it possible and not let logic be swept up in the jubilee that is rightfully still being felt across the nation. Enough major exit polls have come in by now to paint a clear picture of which blocs were the most important to making 2024 happen.
First and foremost, it must be said as clearly as possible: The backbone of President Trump’s coalition is, was, and always has been, White voters. President Trump has maintained a steady and decisive majority in this crucial bloc in all three of his elections. Against Hillary Clinton in 2016, he won 57% of the White vote to her 37%. In 2020, Trump increased his share slightly to 58%, while Joe Biden’s share also rose to 41%. This time around, Trump actually went back to his 2016 percentage of 57%, while Kamala Harris remained stagnant, matching Biden’s 41%.
The key difference is that in 2016, White voters accounted for 70% of the vote. In 2020, they fell to 67%, before rising back up to 71% in 2024. This proves that as long as Republicans can maintain a percentage in the high-50s range, then White voters remaining roughly 70% of the electorate is key to instantly giving the GOP the edge in any future presidential map.
Broken down further, the backbone of this backbone has always been the White working class, specifically White voters with no college education. In 2016, Trump won 67% of the White non-college vote to Hillary’s 28%. He once again got 67% in 2020 to Biden’s 32% and fell back to 66% while Kamala retained Biden’s percentage of 32%.
Again, here is where turnout proves more important than the margins: In 2016, non-college White voters accounted for 34% of the vote, compared to 37% for White college-educated voters. In 2020, non-college Whites made up 35% of the electorate compared to college Whites’ 32%. But in 2024, non-college Whites jumped to 39%, while college Whites remained stagnant at 33%.
Several important blocs that President Trump did well with in 2016, then lost to Biden in 2020 before winning them back this time, include union voters and Catholics. In 2016, Trump lost union households by just 9% to Hillary, with 42% to her 51%. In 2020, Biden decisively won them with 56% to Trump’s 41%, a 15-point difference. Then, in 2024, Trump returned to a single-digit margin of 8 points, with 45% to Kamala’s 53%.
Trump won Catholic voters outright in 2016, with 52% to Hillary’s 45%, before Biden narrowly won them back with 52% to Trump’s 47%. This year, Trump dominated among this bloc with a staggering 18-point lead, 58% to Kamala’s 40%.
Most of these can be attributed primarily to Joe Biden’s particular appeal to these voters compared to the rest of his party, as the difference between the alleged Catholic “Scranton Joe” and the seemingly irreligious San Francisco native Kamala Harris could not be more night-and-day. These two demographics should not be taken for granted, especially if the Democratic Party does indeed engage in some meaningful soul-searching and course-correcting between now and 2028. But they are winnable nonetheless.
The New Coalition
However, it is undeniable that President Trump also successfully expanded upon this coalition, bringing new voters into the fold with very precise messaging and a true “big tent” approach that did not sacrifice any of the core tenets of his America First agenda.
Most astonishingly, President Trump won the highest number of Hispanic voters of any Republican candidate in American history, scoring 46% of this key demographic, just 6 points less than Kamala’s 52%. This is a massive shift from his 36-point deficit in 2016 and his 32-point deficit in 2020.
A major part of this, of course, is his direct and unapologetic stance on immigration, pointing out that few groups in America are more negatively impacted by illegal immigration than the native-born Hispanic-American population. It also draws a sharp contrast between generational Hispanics who have been in this country for many years and many generations and those who are fresh over the border; those whose families have lived here longer are far more likely to identify as American, whereas new arrivals are still more likely to identify with their home countries.
But just as profound—and somehow even simpler—than the immigration messaging is his direct appeal to half of the population: men.
In 2016, he won the male vote by 11%, while Hillary won the female vote by a larger margin of 13%. In 2020, Biden managed to bring the Democratic deficit down to 8 points while also increasing his lead with women to 15 points. In 2024, however, President Trump earned a commanding lead of 13 points among men, while bringing the Democrats’ margin with women down to single digits for the first time, as Kamala won that bloc by just 8 points.
This is an example of where the margins mattered more than the turnout, as women have consistently been a larger share of the electorate than men: In 2016, they accounted for 53% of the vote to the men’s 47%, with the gap shrinking slightly in 2020 to 52% women and 48% men. In 2024, the numbers returned exactly to 2016’s percentages.
The strategy of focusing heavily on the male vote while seeking to simply decrease the Democratic lead with women—rather than win them outright—has been accurately referred to by Time magazine as “maxing out the men and holding the women.” It is not enough to simply hope that men will be turned off to the Democrats due to the party nominating a grating, toxic, and obnoxious woman as they have twice already. They must be convinced to vote for the Republican nominee.
Divine Providence certainly played a key role in this, as President Trump’s miraculous survival of the assassination attempt instantly boosted his image as the epitome of masculinity, a man’s man, and an American hero. That day, and the iconic images of a defiant Trump with his fist in the air, instantly made it “cool” to vote for Donald Trump and to support him publicly. No one understood this better than men.
But President Trump didn’t just let the image speak for itself. He did what he does best and continued to pitch his deal in the only way he could. It was never a matter of his messaging skills, but rather where he made his pitch.
This is where the truly ingenious “podcast blitz” strategy comes into play. His numerous appearances on podcasts and livestreams with the likes of Adin Ross, Theo Von, the Nelk Boys, Logan Paul, and, of course, Joe Rogan, proved to not only be the most effective campaign strategy in modern history when it comes to messaging that circumvents the mainstream media; it was also a direct and extremely successful plan to reach millions of men, especially young men, who might otherwise never have heard what he had to say. Some have fittingly referred to this new political coalition as “The Bro Wall.”
His dominance with men is the one consistent factor across all other demographic lines in the country. He won married men by 22 points, unmarried men by 2 points, White men by 23 points, White suburban men by 27 points, non-college White men by 40 points, college-educated White men by 3 points, and he won with men of every single age demographic; he even won the youngest of men, between the ages of 18 and 29, by a 2-point margin, with his leads only getting bigger as the ages get higher.
Even across racial lines, the overwhelming support for President Trump among men cannot be ignored. He outright won Hispanic men by 12 points, with 55% to Kamala’s 43%. And in the single most loyally Democratic demographic in the country, Black voters, Trump managed to score a respectable 21% of Black men to Kamala’s 77%.
The numbers do not lie. President Trump’s coalition—the winning coalition for the post-Trump Republican Party—is predominantly White and male, with the welcome addition of Hispanics and a critical role to be played by Catholics and union members, who are especially important in the Rust Belt states. President Trump’s protectionist approach to trade and promise of a return to “Made in the USA” manufacturing were key to swinging back the union vote, while his stellar record on fighting abortion helped win back Catholics.
The tectonic shift in Hispanics was crucial to Texas swinging so heavily back to the right after Biden lost by just 5 points in 2020, with President Trump this time scoring a staggering 14-point margin over Kamala. It can also explain why Arizona went to Trump by the largest margin of any of the seven swing states this cycle, as well as why the neighboring state of Nevada finally flipped red for the first time in 20 years. President Trump’s America First approach to immigration played a key part in this, masterfully persuading a sizable number of generational Hispanics to side with their fellow Americans in opposing the invasion of this country by hordes of illegals. Just as Catholics and union voters are critical to the Rust Belt, the new Hispanic wing of the America First movement will be key in holding the American Southwest.
The male vote was solidified not through any one particular political appeal or policy stance, but, as Kamala would say, by the power of “vibes.” President Trump is a uniquely masculine figure, unlike anyone our nation has seen since Teddy Roosevelt. It will be up to future Republican standard-bearers to also become icons of masculinity just as he did. And with his own fair share of podcast appearances, Vice President-elect Vance is already well on his way to doing just that.
However, there is one word of warning that must be made to any Republican strategists or pundits who hope to earn the swooning approval of Baby Boomers who watch Fox News: The GOP must abandon any and all hope of ever winning an even negligible percentage of the Black vote.
Contrary to what Candace Owens once promised us, “Blexit” is never going to happen. It is clear that Black voters are not going to “wake up” and “leave the Democrat plantation” anytime soon. President Trump’s commendable performance among Black men was, unfortunately, offset by Kamala outperforming with Black women, winning 91% of this demographic to Trump’s 7%. As it turns out, Black women slightly outnumbered Black men overall, with the women making up 7% of overall turnout compared to the men’s 5%.
This would explain why, despite the massive gender disparity, President Trump’s overall performance with Black voters increased by a mere one point, from 12% in 2020 to 13% in 2024. Even his increase between 2016 and 2020—from 8% to 12%—was more significant than the shift between 2020 and 2024. The fact that President Trump still won such a resounding victory, even with such a negligible percentage of the Black vote, proves that this demographic is not necessary for future success.
Once more: The answer going forward is a coalition consisting of White voters, male voters, Catholic voters, the working class (including union members), and Hispanic voters. All other demographics are a bonus and should never be prioritized over these five key blocs.
The New Majority
Some may rightfully be concerned that this coalition is a lightning-in-a-bottle moment, something that could only be achieved by Donald Trump himself, only to never again be captured by Vice President Vance or any other successors.
But here’s where the truly excellent news comes in, suggesting that this may not be the GOP’s last stand but instead an incredible new beginning.
In just a few more years, there will be another census in the United States. The current projections for the 2030 census, based entirely on internal migration between states, should have all Democrats fearing that they could soon become a permanent minority in this country.
Democratic states are projected to lose 13 electoral votes in 2030, while Republican states will gain 13. Most notably, the Democratic mega-stronghold of California is on track to lose four electoral votes, while New York will lose three and Illinois will lose two. The additional blue states of Minnesota, Oregon, and Rhode Island will lose one each, with the swing state of Pennsylvania also losing one.
By contrast, the Republican paradises of Texas and Florida are on track to pick up four and three electoral votes, respectively, while the Republican states of Utah, Idaho, and Tennessee will all gain one, and the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina will also pick up one vote each.
If this electoral math was factored into the 2024 election, then President Trump and Vice President Vance would have won 324 electoral votes. This means that, even if they had lost all three of the Rust Belt states, they still would have emerged victorious, albeit narrowly, with 281 electoral votes.
And this is even before the impact of mass deportations is taken into account. If President Trump and Border Czar Tom Homan are indeed successful in removing the tens of millions of foreign invaders who disproportionately occupy Democratic states like California and New York, then those states could lose even more electoral votes in 2030. This could lead to future President Vance winning his second term in 2032 with as many as 350 electoral votes.
As then-candidate Trump once promised in 2016, we could soon get tired of winning so much.
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