Russia and Ukraine Likely to Ignore Biden’s Attempts to Sabotage Trump’s Ukraine Peace Effort Given the havoc that Biden’s post-election Ukraine policy decisions have caused, Donald Trump cannot return to the Oval Office fast enough. Fred Fleitz
In December 1992, after the security and humanitarian situations in Somalia significantly deteriorated, the George H.W. Bush administration decided to deploy U.S. troops as part of a UN-sanctioned peace enforcement mission. Because President Bush had just lost the 1992 presidential election and would be leaving this crisis to his successor, Bill Clinton, Bush consulted with President-elect Clinton and obtained his agreement before making this major foreign policy decision.
This instance of post-election foreign policy collaboration by incoming and outgoing presidents represented the U.S. tradition of the peaceful transfer of power—and an outgoing president respecting the will of the American people who just elected a new president. Unfortunately, President Biden has chosen to ignore these crucial traditions concerning the war in Ukraine and instead appears determined to sabotage the policies of his successor.
President-elect Donald Trump has made it clear that one of his top national security priorities is swiftly ending the war in Ukraine. Trump is determined to change U.S. policy on the war by ending it instead of supporting a long war of attrition that Ukraine is sure to lose. Under the peaceful transfer of power tradition, President Biden should cooperate with the policy of his successor during his final days in office.
Unfortunately, Biden has taken a defiant approach to Trump’s new policy.
Biden decided last weekend to allow Ukraine to attack targets in Russia with the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACM). Ukraine had been asking for permission to fire these weapons at targets deep inside Russia for almost a year, but Biden refused—until after the election—because he worried this would dangerously escalate the war.
Putin previously said that Ukraine firing missiles deep into Russia would amount to the “direct participation” of NATO countries in the Ukraine War. Putin immediately responded to Biden’s decision by announcing he had lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons in the war. The U.S. embassy in Kyiv was closed on November 20 after Russian officials threatened a “significant air attack” in response to Ukraine firing longer-range missiles into Russia. On November 21, Russia reportedly fired a nuclear-capable ICBM at Ukraine for the first time against the city of Dnipro. Russian officials claim this was an “experimental hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile.”
Biden made other provocative post-election changes to his Ukraine policy. The administration announced on November 19 that the president agreed to send banned antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine for the first time. On November 20, the Biden administration moved to forgive $4.7 billion in U.S. loans to Ukraine. Biden officials also plan to spend all available funds on military aid to Ukraine, totaling an estimated $7 billion by the time Biden leaves office.
So instead of collaborating with the newly elected president to end the war, Biden has taken steps to escalate it and make it harder for Trump to end the conflict. Biden’s moves may cause Putin to dig in and refuse to negotiate. They could also embolden Ukraine to keep fighting instead of agreeing to a cease-fire due to the influx of weapons and cash that the Biden administration will be sending over the next 60 days.
Why would Biden do this? The reason is that the president and his staff do not have a serious approach to the Ukraine War. Their policy of demonizing Putin and arming Ukraine for a war they know it cannot win is virtue signaling, not a strategy to end this conflict. Biden and his supporters want to be able to brag that they are standing up to Putin and are prepared to fight to the last Ukrainian soldier for their cynical approach.
The Biden camp also intensely opposes Trump’s plan to end the war quickly, probably with a cease-fire along the current battle lines followed by negotiations for a permanent settlement. Biden officials don’t care that the likely Trump approach is the best of many bad options and, if successful, would stop the killing and create the potential for a lasting peace.
However, despite President Biden’s foolhardy 11th-hour policy decisions on the Ukraine War, there are reasons to be hopeful.
The day after the election, Trump spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin also reportedly spoke after the election, although Trump’s staff has not officially confirmed this. Putin has indicated he is open to negotiating a ceasefire with Trump. Zelensky is willing to talk but currently appears less willing to compromise. Russia’s state-controlled media has said it expects Trump to reverse Biden’s decision allowing Ukraine to fire missiles deep into Russia.
This means Putin and Zelensky see the incoming president as effectively already in charge and view Biden as a lame duck and failed president. They therefore are likely to mostly ignore Biden’s recent foolhardy policy decisions on the war in Ukraine and concentrate on preparing for President Trump, whom they expect to put extreme pressure on them to end the war.
Still, given the havoc that Biden’s post-election Ukraine policy decisions have caused, Donald Trump cannot return to the Oval Office fast enough.
Comments are closed.
