RUTHFULLY YOURS

As demand increases and China restricts supply, rare earth availability is causing increasing political tensions. Donald Trump is looking for supplies in Greenland, in Ukraine, and in Australia.Rare earths, also known as rare earth elements (REE’s), are a set of 17 nearly indistinguishable, lustrous heavy metals, most with unpronounceable names. As it happens, it is something of a misnomer to describe them as rare because they are actually quite common. Cerium, for example, is the planet’s 25^th most abundant element, even more plentiful than copper.

Compared with other minerals such as iron or bauxite, however, they are thinly spread, making mining difficult, with processing requiring enormous amounts of raw ore. They do at least tend to occur together, but this makes their separation another production issue. Current methods of extraction result in toxic contamination of soil and water and, further complicating matters, deposits are usually found with thorium and uranium, meaning the 2000 tonnes of waste typically generated to produce a single tonne of REE is radioactive. This plunges environmentalists into a state ongoing cognitive dissonance: while they hail the production of CO2-free “clean-energy” minerals as key to “renewable” power sources, they must also countenance the pollution and environmental degradation extraction causes. Fortunately, consistency has never been a prerequisite for the green movement.

Rare earths have diverse applications in electrical and electronic components, lasers, glass, and industrial processes. In the modern age of so-called clean energy, their use has assumed critical importance for batteries, the magnets essential for electric vehicles and wind turbines, not to mention drones, missiles and other military hardware. The global demand for REE’s continues to soar and is expected to at least double again over the next ten years, leaving a supply gap.

Until 1948, most of the world’s rare earths were sourced from sand deposits in India and Brazil. In the 1950s, South Africa became the world’s chief rare earth source. Then, from the 1960s until the 1980s, the Mountain Pass Mine in California made the United States the leading producer. The Indian and South African deposits still produce some rare-earth concentrates, but are dwarfed by the scale of current Chinese production. 

Australia is currently the second and only other major producer, with 15% of world supply, but currently all of the world’s ‘heavy’ rare earths (such as dysprosium) come from Chinese rare-earth sources. The Browns Range mine, 160km south east of Halls Creek in northern Western Australia, is positioned to become the first significant dysprosium and terbium producer outside of China. The Australian Government has funded the project with $1.6 billion.

Increased demand has strained supply, and there is growing concern the world may soon face a shortage — a shortage whose genesis is geopolitical. In 2009, China announced plans to reduce its export quotas to “conserve scarce resources and protect the environment”. In September 2011, China announced a halt in production at three of its eight major rare earth mines, responsible for almost 40% of China’s total production.

In March 2012, the US, Japan, and European Union filed a joint lawsuit with the World Trade Organization, arguing Beijing should not be able to deny such important exports. By 2019, China was supplying between 85% and 95% of the global demand, with half of the the key 17 minerals sourced from Myanmar. After the 2021 military coup in that country, future supplies of critical ores were constrained, now one again impacted by a cyclone. It is speculated China could again reduce rare earth exports to counteract economic sanctions imposed by the US and EU.

In 2011, Yasuhiro Kato, a Japanese geologist who led a study of Pacific Ocean seabed, published results indicating deep ocean mud could hold rich concentrations of rare-earth minerals. The deposits, studied at 78 sites, came from the hot plumes of hydrothermal vents  over tens of millions of years. One 2.3-square-kilometre patch of metal-rich mud might contain enough rare earths to meet most of the global demand for a year

The sea floor covers millions of square kilometres, and the United Nations has introduced an International Seabed Authority to control deep sea mining. In addition to rare earths there is copper, cobalt, nickel, gold and silver on the deep-ocean sea floor, much in the form of easily collectable nodules. Commercial regulations are yet to be established but, once again, China, is moving faster than regulations and has started sea bed mining in its self-proclaimed South China Sea. It also has the Nauru and Cook Island governments in its pay, and Kiribati may be next, with a resulting threat to marine life due to scraping of the ocean floor producing what environmentalists describe as an underwater desert. Most of the interest is in the sea plains outside territorial waters, where some 17 survey teams are already exploring the depths.

The search for new sources of supply, includes South Africa, where the world’s highest-grade rare earth and thorium mine closed in 1963, is gearing up to restore production. Other mines include the Nolans and Mount Weld projects in Australia, the Bokan Mine project in Alaska, the remote Hoidas Lake project in northern Canada, and the Mount Weld project in Australia. 

Rare earths are also, along with security concerns, one of Donald Trump’s motivations for taking such a keen interest in Greenland. In 2010, a large deposit of rare earths was discovered in Kvanefjeld, in the south of the Arctic island, where the European Union has urged Greenland, a Danish possession, to prohibit Chinese development. Another current area of Trumpian interest is the Ukraine, which also boasts significant rare earth deposits.

One unrecognised source of significant quantities of rare-earth oxides is in tailings accumulated from years of mining. In Estonia, due to the rising prices of rare earths, extraction of these oxides has become economically viable, perhaps also putting the country at risk of Russian aggression. The country currently exports around 3,000 metric tons per year, representing around 2% of world production. Similarly viable deposits are suspected in the western US, where the mullock heaps of gold rush-era mines are believed to contain large amounts of rare earths. There are similar thoughts about tailings at the Olympic Dam uranium mine in Australia. Coal byproducts, such as ash and sludge, are other potential sources of REEs.

Another recently developing source of rare earths is electronic waste, including fluorescent light bulbs, discarded compueters and mobile phones. Advances in recycling technology have made the extraction of rare earths from these materials less expensive. Recycling plants operate in Japan and France.

The extraction of REEs has caused local contamination of soil and water around mining areas. Mortality studies, so far, show REE’s are not highly toxic, but long-term inhalation of dust containing high levels (60%) has been shown to cause pneumoconiosis.

Following environmental problems with processing in Malaysia, Lynas Rare Earths has moved to initial production near Kalgoorlie. Opening in November 2024, in outback Eneabba, this will be the largest facility outside China. The initial mixed rare earth concentrate (MREC), is already available, stockpiled from its original separation at Narngulu mineral sands project. The new plant, will also process material from other mines to separate individual REE’s, a process still being carried out in Malaysia. The final stage, to enable complete-in-house production, is scheduled to be completed by 2026.

Slashing exports of rare earth metals has benefited Chinese manufacturers further up the supply chain by allowing them to sell valuable finished goods to the world, rather than lowly raw materials. China still has an effective monopoly — albeit one that is increasingly challenged — as around 25 companies are mining for rare earths in Australia alone. 

The US still has its Mountain Pass mine, whose operations were suspended on cost grounds in 2002 but which restarted REE production in 2018. In 2021, Lynas commenced building another processing facility in Texas. Other areas under investigation include Halleck Creek in Wyoming and La Paz, Arizona.

Europe, where 14 of the 17 REE can be found, has belatedly realised the trap it faces. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act of 2024, recognises 47 projects —  25 in mining, 24 processing, 10 recycling. They have instituted streamlined approval processes to avoid environmental blocks, aiming, by 2030, to see 10% of their own production supplied domestically, 40% of processing, and 25% of recycling. With these new finds, even China concedes its share of the market will fall from 62% to 28%, by 2035.

As ideology dictates renewable electricity sources, and conflict looms, these rare earths are fundamental. Demand for graphite, lithium, cobalt and manganese is surging but, without meeting the increase in future demand for REE’s, we cannot keep the lights on, never mind fight a war.