RUTHFULLY YOURS

Coming into this debate, a lot of pundits thought Mitt Romney would benefit from having the other challengers gang up on him about health care. They were wrong since doing so would have exposed Romney’s vulnerabilities not confirmed him as the frontrunner.

Unfortunately for Tim Pawlenty, he listened to those voices urging caution and that provided the debate’s signature moment. Offered an opportunity to hit his main opponent hard on Obamneycare as he called it just a few days ago, Pawlenty whiffed. In the end, it really doesn’t matter whether it was because he was too nice or not courageous enough to call out Romney to his face. Either way he failed. It was a key moment in this race and one that Pawlenty will rue in the months to come. He walks away from the debate clearly weakened by this astonishing failure of either nerve or imagination. Instead of winning the competition between the two mainstream candidates, Pawlenty is now in danger of slipping back into the second tier.

The other candidates followed Pawlenty’s lead and Romney left the debate unscathed. That is a major victory for him and, almost in spite of his clear weaknesses, confirms him as the temporary frontrunner.

Among those second-tier candidates, the clear winner was Michelle Bachmann who demonstrated energy as well as a willingness to stand up for her Tea Party principles. Her debut on the national stage was a strong one.

The main reaction to the first GOP debate in South Carolina was a call for more candidates. Pawlenty’s failure will encourage those who want Rick Perry or Paul Ryan to run. But Bachmann’s strong showing ought to further discourage Sarah Palin whose populist mantle is now being seized by the congresswoman from Minnesota. Bachmann’s hopes of being the second tier breakout candidate in 2012 as Mike Huckabee was in 2008 are much more realistic right now than they were two hours ago.

It’s early but if we must pick winners six months away from the first votes being cast, Mitt Romney is the mainstream frontrunner with Michelle Bachmann setting herself up as the most viable challenger of the establishment.