PUTIN’S CHOCOLATE WAR: BRET STEPHENS
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304213904579092961404425886.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_MIDDLESecond
When Viktor Yanukovich became Ukraine’s president in 2010, many observers feared the former Soviet republic was destined to return to Moscow’s orbit. Mr. Yanukovich—long seen as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s man in Kiev—quickly extended the lease on Russia’s naval base at Sevastapol. And it wasn’t long into his presidency that his old political rival, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was tried and imprisoned on corruption charges that smacked of the selective prosecutions so common in modern Russia.
Ms. Tymoshenko remains in prison, but the comradeship between the two presidents soured long ago. On a visit last year to Crimea, Mr. Putin kept his Ukrainian host waiting for four hours while he participated in a motorcycle tour of the peninsula. More recently, an angry feud has erupted thanks to a furious dispute involving chocolate, of all things.
The chocolate in question is called Roshen, a popular local brand owned by pro-Western Ukrainian billionaire Petro Poroshenko. Over the summer Russia slapped a ban on imports of Roshen on grounds that health inspectors had detected high levels of carcinogens. The transparently bogus ban has caused a wave of patriotic—and anti-Russian—feeling among Ukrainians, some of whom bombarded a visiting Russian basketball team with Roshen chocolates at a recent game.
The chocolate ban was likely in retaliation for Kiev’s imposition of duties on imported Russian cars. But this is more than a trade war. Mr. Yanukovich is making a bid to sign an association agreement with Brussels this fall, which would put Ukraine on a path to eventual membership in the European Union. Mr. Putin had hoped to get Ukraine to join a customs union with Russia instead, offering steep discounts on Russian gas (on which Ukraine heavily depends) as an enticement. The chocolate ban was meant as a shot across Kiev’s bow.
Ukraine still has tall hurdles to get its EU agreement, which for starters would require Ms. Tymoshenko’s release from prison, something the vindictive Mr. Yanukovich is loath to do. But the ham-fisted chocolate ban has united Ukrainians against Moscow as almost never before, proving again that the Kremlin is its own worst enemy in its bid to re-establish its former empire.
In the meantime, Exxon and Shell last month signed a multibillion-dollar deal with Kiev to explore the country’s offshore gas reserves, which are thought to be huge and could help make Ukraine gas independent by 2030. The deal is another result of the hardball pipeline politics the Kremlin has favored over the past decade to dominate its neighbors. It’s a useful reminder that even as Mr. Putin remains a bully, he doesn’t always know how to pick the right fight.
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