Despite Clampdown on Foreign Fighters, Extremists Ranks Swelling, Study Finds by Felicia Schwartz
http://www.wsj.com/articles/despite-clampdown-on-foreign-fighters-extremists-ranks-swelling-study-finds-1449537742
Number of fighters from North America steady but number from Western Europe more than doubled since 2014, report says
WASHINGTON—More than a year of international efforts to stem the flow of foreign fighters into Syria and Iraq have fallen short, with the number of militants taking up arms for Islamic State and other extremist groups more than doubling in that time frame, a report released Monday found.
Between 27,000 and 31,000 people from at least 86 countries have traveled to the Middle East to join the extremist movement, according to the report, by the security consulting firm The Soufan Group, founded by a former federal official who investigated the 2001 terrorist attacks. By comparison, a June 2014 by the firm issued identified approximately 12,000 foreign fighters from 81 countries who had traveled to Iraq and Syria.
The report represents new evidence that backs a trend noted by lawmakers, intelligence officials and analysts as the U.S. and its allies grasp for ways short of major military deployments to counter the expansion of the Islamic State group. In September, a report by the House Homeland Security Committee said that nearly 30,000 foreigners, including more than 250 Americans, had traveled to Syria and Iraq to join Islamic State and other violent extremist groups since 2011, double the number from a year before.
While countries around the world have taken steps to cut the flow of foreign fighters into and out of the Middle East, the extremist movement and its message has remained resilient, the Soufan Group said.
“The appeal of the Islamic State appears to be as strong as before, despite—or in some cases because of—the multiplying examples of its horrific violence and increasing totalitarianism,” the report said. “A search for belonging, purpose, adventure and friendship appear to remain the main reasons for people to join the Islamic State just as they remain the least addressed issues in the international fight against terrorism.”
The number of foreign fighters in the Middle East who traveled there from North America has remained relatively flat, the report found. But the number of foreign fighters from Western Europe has more than doubled since June 2014, while foreign fighters from Russia and Central Asia have increased up to 300%, the report found.
Most recruits to Islamic State come from the region, including from Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey.
About 250 people from the U.S. have attempted to travel to Iraq and Syria and 40 are estimated to have returned, the report said. France, by comparison, has had 1,700 people travel to Iraq and Syria and about 250 have returned. Tunisia, the country with the most foreign fighters, has seen 6,000 people travel to Iraq and Syria and more than 625 return.
Recruitment tactics have shifted in the past 18 months, the report found. In countries with the largest flows, including Tunisia and Libya, recruiting people to go to Syria and Iraq has become more localized, with fewer people going to fight on their own and family and friends playing a greater role.
Similar patterns are arising in Europe, such as in the Molenbeek district in Brussels that was home to many members of the Islamic State cell that carried out the Paris attacks.
Within the U.S., extremist recruiting continues to rely on social media, especially in the initial phases. The report found that the average return rate from Iraq and Syria to Western countries is about 20% to 30%.
Understanding the motivations of those who travel to Syria and Iraq as well as return will be critical to allocating resources and identifying people who might be able to speak out about the Islamic State group’s activities to undermine its credibility, the report found.
In the U.S., officials have said international efforts to confront foreign fighter flows will take time to kick into gear. President Barack Obama hosted a meeting at the U.N. General Assembly on foreign fighters in 2014 and another session at the U.N. General Assembly earlier this year that focused on countering violent extremism and foreign fighter flows.
The U.N. Security Council passed a resolution in September 2014 to try to curb travel by foreign terrorist fighters. All U.N. member states must take preventative steps such as trying to stop fighters being recruited and equipped and collecting travel data that could detect their plans to reach the conflict zones.
On Friday, the European Union reached a deal on an air passenger database considered essential in tracking terrorists returning Europe. Senior U.S. officials had encouraged the EU to allow police looking for terrorism suspects to have access to names, personal details and credit card information of air travelers on flights to our from Europe.
Other European countries and members of the U.S.-led coalition to confront Islamic State have passed laws and taken other steps to target foreign fighter flows, officials said, but it will take time for those to take effect.
“Countries don’t turn on a dime, they’re battleships,” a State Department official said. The U.S.’s foreign fighter problem is relatively small compared with its allies and many of those countries will have to work to address the continuing flows, the official said.
“For the most part we don’t have full control in the United States,” Ali Soufan, CEO of the Soufan group and one of the report’s authors, said in an interview. “The international community and our partners around the world need to take a breath, take a step backward and look at the local problems that’s causing this global issue.”
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