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Trump, Cruz Lead GOP Field as Support for Carson Plummets, Poll Finds Journal/NBC News survey shows the Texas senator consolidating party’s conservative support By Janet Hook

Posted By Ruth King on December 14th, 2015

http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-cruz-lead-gop-field-support-for-carson-plummets-poll-finds-1450015201

Sen. Ted Cruz has surged in the 2016 GOP presidential primary contest, consolidating support from the party’s most conservative voters and emerging as a leading alternative to businessman Donald Trump, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

The latest poll, coming after a tumultuous month of international and domestic terrorism, found Mr. Trump tops in the GOP field, with Mr. Cruz in second place. The Texas senator appears to be benefiting from the sharp decline in support for Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon who led the pack in Journal/NBC News polling six weeks earlier.

The poll also showed a substantial lead for Hillary Clinton over her main rival for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Bernie Sanders, although the gap has narrowed.

Until recently, Messrs. Trump and Cruz have refrained from attacking each other, saving their barbs for other rivals in the crowded Republican field. But with a separate poll showing Mr. Cruz rising to first place among likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, he has increasingly come under direct and pointed attack from Mr. Trump, suggesting a messy new chapter in the GOP campaign on the eve of a nationally televised debate from Las Vegas on Tuesday night.

“I don’t think he’s qualified to be president because I don’t think he’s got the right temperament,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Cruz Sunday on Fox, referring to the senator’s unyielding tactics that have alienated even some fellow Republicans on Capitol Hill. “I don’t think he’s got the right judgment.”

Mr. Trump had 27% support among Republican primary voters in the new Journal/NBC News survey, his highest showing in that poll this year and an increase from 23% in late October.

But the biggest mover was Mr. Cruz, who had 22% support, up from 10% in late October and a boost strong enough to lift him to the poll’s No. 2 spot for the first time since the campaign began. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida placed third in the survey, with 15% support.

Mr. Carson fell from 29% support in late October to a fourth-place showing of 11% in the new survey.

ENLARGE

Sen. Ted Cruz addressed the Sunshine Summit in Orlando, Fla., on Nov. 13. Photo: John Raoux/Associated Press

Mr. Cruz, unlike many of his rival candidates, has avoided criticizing Mr. Trump over his provocative comments about Mexicans and other groups, in hopes of inheriting his supporters should they stray from his camp.

It remains to be seen whether his gloves come off now, but the new Journal/NBC News poll indicates that Mr. Cruz’s strategy of trying to build support among evangelical Christians, tea-party supporters and other conservatives is working.

“This is a good poll for Ted Cruz,” said Fred Yang, a Democratic pollster who conducted the survey with GOP pollster Bill McInturff. “He’s been doing things for the last three, four, five months that are now paying” off.

Support for Mr. Cruz among voters who most strongly oppose same-sex marriage and abortion rights increased to 27%, from 14% in October. Meanwhile, for Mr. Carson, support among those voters dropped to 14%, from 34% in October.

Similarly, Mr. Cruz’s support among voters who call themselves “very conservative” rose by 23 percentage points, while Mr. Carson’s support among that group dropped by 23 points.

ENLARGE

Like Mr. Trump, Mr. Rubio used an appearance on Sunday’s talk shows to criticize Mr. Cruz. He took issue with his rival’s support for a new law that allowed a domestic telephone data-collection program to expire. Mr. Rubio said the data-collection program, run by the National Security Agency, could help prevent terror attacks.

“Each time he’s had to choose between strong national defense and some of the isolationist tendencies in American politics, he seems to side with the isolationist,” Mr. Rubio said on NBC.

A spokesman for Mr. Cruz said the new law expanded law enforcement’s tools while protecting Americans’ civil liberties.

“Does Sen. Rubio really believe that going back to collecting landline phone metadata only is really going to keep America safe?” asked the spokesman, Rick Tyler.

Mr. Tyler pointed to Mr. Cruz’s ascent in recent polls when asked about Mr. Trump’s attacks.

“The polls we’ve seen over the last 24 hours are of great encouragement and speak of the hard work we’ve put into Iowa,” he said. A Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics survey of likely Iowa caucusgoers released over the weekend found Mr. Cruz leaping 21 points since October to claim 31% support, ahead of Mr. Trump, who was in second place with 21%.

Messrs. Trump and Cruz leading the GOP field may be good news for Democrats. In a series of test match-ups in a general election, the Journal/NBC poll found that Mrs. Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, would have an easier time beating those two Republicans than if she were matched against Mr. Rubio or Mr. Carson. Mrs. Clinton’s lead over Mr. Cruz in the new survey is small, however.

In the Democratic contest, Mrs. Clinton, a former senator and secretary of state, had 56% support, versus 37% for Mr. Sanders, of Vermont. That is a smaller lead than the 31-point advantage Mrs. Clinton held in late October.

The poll offered little cheer for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, long ago considered the party’s front-runner, who, like the remainder of the crowded field, remained stuck with single-digit ratings. Mr. Bush was the first choice of 7% of GOP primary voters.

Former Hewlett-Packard chief Carly Fiorina was first choice of 5%; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie drew 3% each; and Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky each drew 2%.

Mr. Cruz is hoping that this GOP primary field shapes up as the opposite of what has been the case in recent election years. This time, establishment-oriented GOP voters are split among a number of candidates—among them Messrs. Rubio, Bush, Kasich and Christie—while Mr. Cruz is trying to lock up the most conservative, ideological voters in his camp.

In 2008 and 2012, GOP conservatives split among a range of candidates, while the establishment rallied behind eventual nominees Sen. John McCain and Mitt Romney, respectively.

Messrs. Cruz and Trump share an antiestablishment message, but Mr. Cruz is trying to argue he is the more authentic, battle-tested conservative.

Mr. Cruz, with his support in Iowa building, will focus on a different region after Tuesday’s debate. Starting Thursday, he will make a weeklong campaign swing through states, mostly in the South, that are holding primaries on March 1. More convention delegates are up for grabs on that date than on any other in the primary calendar.

The closest Mr. Cruz has come to public criticism of Mr. Trump was when the senator last week said he disagreed with Mr. Trump’s proposal to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the U.S. But he went out of his way to praise Mr. Trump for making border security a campaign issue.

A super PAC supporting Mr. Cruz has prepared a series of negative ads against Messrs. Trump, Rubio and other rivals and seriously considered launching them this week.

Kellyanne Conway, a pollster with the group, said it decided against the launch because of the apparent success of a more-positive message from the campaign and the PAC.

“The strategy is working—to not respond to every slight or insult,” she said.

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