https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16798/arms-control-new-start
Russia’s strategy with nuclear weapons, as outlined in official documents and many analyses, leans towards what General John Hyten, the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has referred to as “escalate to win.”
Moreover, the absence of China as a party to any arms agreements, including New START, gives China a total “free ride” on nuclear issues in that there is no requirement for China to limit any of its nuclear weapons, even if the US could verify such an agreement.
Such calls for one-sided cuts to the US arsenal, particularly during a serious negotiation such as the current one with Moscow, simply undercut America’s negotiating leverage.
The fact is that no matter what the US does, both Moscow and Beijing will continue to build nuclear and other high-tech weapons, including space weapons and hypersonic-capable weapons…. If these adversaries cannot compete on the conventional level, they have no choice, given their ambitions, but to go nuclear to assert themselves against the interests and values of the US and its allies, and carry out their aggressive and hegemonic designs.
Moreover, as inherently imperial autocracies, they are driven from within to states of siege, if not war, with the US, as well as imperial probes across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.
For these reasons, the Trump Administration has correctly focused on ending China’s “free riding” regarding arms control talks and on placing all of Russia’s nuclear programs on the table, coupled with far better verification. Many of those opposing such a strategy apparently have forgotten that the first reason a great power such as the US engages in arms control is not altruism. Rather, and as the fathers of deterrence theory understood, arms control is an action that states undertake primarily to advance their own interests and security and that of their allies.
Thus, from a US perspective, perpetuating the status quo would hardly be a satisfactory outcome for Washington and its allies.
The New START Treaty will expire in February 2021. The next administration will therefore have only weeks to decide on how to proceed regarding arms control negotiations with Russia. Although some negotiations with Russia are already taking place, the complexities of the issues make it most unlikely that the current dialogue will lead to a new treaty by February.
