https://www.wsj.com/articles/belarus-on-the-brink-11596756409?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
Belarussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is facing the most serious challenge to his quarter-century rule, but he won’t leave without a fight. Instability in the country of 9.5 million could open another front for Russian aggression along the European Union’s border.
Mr. Lukashenko prevented several rivals from running in this Sunday’s presidential election. But Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the wife of a banned candidate, has presented a surprisingly robust challenge. Tens of thousands have attended rallies to support Ms. Tikhanovskaya, who is running on pro-democratic reforms that would bring Belarus closer to the West. She also promises to resign after six months and order a fresh election.
Like Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Mr. Lukashenko rules as an authoritarian but tries to derive legitimacy from unfair elections. Both men have seen their once genuine popularity decline thanks to economic mismanagement, frustration with curtailed political freedom, and especially a bungled response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Like his Russian counterpart, Mr. Lukashenko won’t accept any outcome but victory in rigged elections.
Independent observers have been detained while documenting thousands of election-law violations in early voting. If opposition supporters feel they’ve been robbed, as they almost certainly will, expect protests. Mr. Lukashenko won’t hesitate to violently suppress dissent, but the depth of public disdain means the demonstrators won’t back down easily.